The balance between caution and risk-taking is key

more interesting than the fake ipl blog, which is a lot of fun and a lot of fiction, is a peculiar trend that has emerged in this year's ipl. it is just one of the many ways in which this ipl is different from the dashing first edition we saw last year.

there are many trends; lower totals, lower run-rates at specific moments but two stand out. if you look at the overs that are producing wickets, you come across four big ones. overs 19 and 20 are easily understood since that is when caution gives way to recklessness-in life as in the end overs, it can be fraught with danger. but the next two are interesting. the largest number of wickets thereafter go down in overs 16 and 11.

you could put over number 11 down to a break in momentum though that is not an argument i am willing to buy at this level of cricket. batsman have to come in and get going anyway. now, it is evident, that the curse of over number 11 has got to the batsmen and they are trying to play safe-way too much importance to one variable, i suspect.

i believe therefore that the fall out is being seen in the 16th over. far too many teams are playing safe between 11 and 15 and realising by the time they get there that the asking rate has slipped too far ahead. 16 then becomes the over when they try to correct things. i can think of no other reason for this anamoly and i suspect as the tournament enters the back 7 games for each side it will start getting erased as teams start evening out their run chase. at the moment, they still haven’t got the right balance between preserving wickets and going after the runs. if we get scores of 160+ consistently, teams will have to play faster earlier and the anamoly of the 16th over might vanish.