Three teams, one spot: what India, NZ and SL must do to reach the semis
England, Australia and South Africa are already through, but who will join them in the last four?
Sampath Bandarupalli
21-Oct-2025 • 3 hrs ago
South Africa knocked Pakistan out of the semi-final race • ICC/Getty Images
Pakistan remain winless in the Women's World Cup 2025, following their defeat against South Africa on Tuesday. They became the second team knocked out of the semi-final race, after Bangladesh.
Australia, South Africa and England have already qualified for the semi-finals, which leaves three teams jostling for the last spot, with six league games remaining in the tournament. India, New Zealand or Sri Lanka will play first semi-final on October 29 in Guwahati.
Note: In case points are tied, number of wins take precedence over net run-rate
India - Matches 5, Wins 2, Points 4, NRR 0.526
If India beat New Zealand on Thursday, they will make the semi-finals. If they lose to New Zealand, India have to hope New Zealand lose to England before India beat Bangladesh on Sunday.
A washout against New Zealand can also be a good result for India if they beat Bangladesh. India will be through to the semi-finals even if they lose against Bangladesh in the above scenario, if New Zealand and Sri Lanka (or a washout against Pakistan) lose their respective last matches.
If both of India's games in Navi Mumbai get washed out, they will qualify for the semi-finals, but only if England beat New Zealand (or if that game also gets washed out). If Sri Lanka are tied on six points with India in the above scenario, India will progress with a better net run-rate.
New Zealand - Matches 5, Wins 1, Points 4, NRR -0.245
New Zealand's next match against India will be an all-or-nothing game for them, and a loss will end their World Cup campaign. If New Zealand win their next two games, they will make the semi-finals.
If New Zealand beat India but lose to England, they will have to hope Bangladesh beat India (or if it ends in a washout). Sri Lanka can also finish with six points if they beat Pakistan, but New Zealand currently have a better net run-rate.
New Zealand will make the semi-finals irrespective of other results if they beat India and their match against England gets washed out. A washout against India will be good for New Zealand only if they defeat England, and India don't bag two points against Bangladesh.
New Zealand can progress to the semi-finals if both their remaining games are washed out, but only if India and Sri Lanka don't reach six points.
Sri Lanka - Matches 6, Wins 1, Points 4, NRR -1.035
To reach the semi-finals, Sri Lanka have to beat Pakistan and hope India lose both their remaining games. They will also need England to beat New Zealand on the last day of the league stage.
Sri Lanka will be tied on six points with New Zealand in the above scenario, but will be behind on net run-rate if they don't win big against Pakistan.
Sampath Bandarupalli is a statistician at ESPNcricinfo