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Prior's rise, Dhoni's slump

MS Dhoni has a Test average of 25.72 in the last year, while Matt Prior has shone both as batsman and wicketkeeper

S Rajesh

August 5, 2011

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MS Dhoni survives a vociferous appeal from Stuart Broad, England v India, 1st Test, Lord's, 3rd day, July 23, 2011
Nailed by pace: MS Dhoni averages 22.12 against pace bowling outside the subcontinent © Getty Images
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For MS Dhoni, these are the most testing times he has had as an international cricketer. The World Cup brought unprecedented highs, but the England tour has so far been the other extreme: he has struggled for runs, he has struggled behind the stumps, and his strategies as captain have been questioned. The third is quite possibly an over-reaction, and inevitable given the results of the first two Tests, but there's no doubt that Dhoni the batsman and the wicketkeeper needs to lift his game. It looks even worse for him since his opposite number in England, Matt Prior, has made vital contributions, especially with the bat. In the two Tests so far, Prior has scored 199 more runs than Dhoni; he has two fifties and a hundred, while Dhoni doesn't even aggregate 50 runs in four innings put together.

At the moment, there's no doubt that Prior is the best wicketkeeper-batsman going around. Dhoni's Test average of 37.45 is anything but poor, but a break-up of his stats reveals that his spread of runs is more uneven than Prior's. In home conditions Dhoni has done superbly, averaging 43.20 and scoring three hundreds and 11 fifties in 39 innings. Overseas, though, that average drops by 10 runs, to 33.37, with one century and 10 fifties in 52 innings. His average has fallen away even further when batting outside the subcontinent: in conditions that are more favourable for fast bowling, Dhoni averages only 28.25 in 23 Tests, with a highest of 92. He does have a few memorable innings in those countries, most notably the unbeaten 76 at Lord's in 2007 which saved the Test and ultimately won India the series, and the 90 in Centurion last year, but there have also been plenty of low scores to pull down the average. And over the last year Dhoni's form has been wretched: since July 2010 he averages only 25.72 in 25 innings. During this period, only five out of 16 Tests have been played at home.

In fact, the year 2011 has been a terrible one for Dhoni the batsman in both Tests and ODIs: he averages 14.60 in Tests and 31.60 in ODIs (well below his career ODI average of 48.78). However, his only half-century in the 50-over format was in the biggest match of them all - the World Cup final.

MS Dhoni's Test stats
  Tests Runs Average 100s/ 50s Strike rate
Overall 59 3071 37.45 4/ 21 59.18
Home 27 1469 43.20 3/ 11 58.20
Away 32 1602 33.37 1/ 10 60.11
Outside subcontinent 23 1102 28.25 0/ 7 55.88
Since July 2010 16 643 25.72 0/ 4 53.67

Prior's stats, on the other hand, are far more even: his average in each calendar year so far has been at least 40 (with the 2011 average going up to 70.85), his home average (46.37) is only marginally better than his overseas one (43.41), and he has done pretty well in the subcontinent too, averaging 40.25 from seven Tests. His only poor series was in South Africa in 2009-10, when seven innings fetched him only 158 runs.

Matt Prior's Test stats
  Tests Runs Average 100s/ 50s Strike rate
Overall 45 2526 45.10 6/ 18 67.03
Home 25 1484 46.37 4/ 9 71.69
Away 20 1042 43.41 2/ 9 61.36
In subcontinent 7 322 40.25 0/ 4 48.64
In South Africa 4 158 22.57 0/ 2 56.83

Dhoni's bottom-handed technique has helped him play the big shots in the shorter version of the game, but that, and his tendency to play from the crease, have caused him problems against pace bowling in Tests. That technical flaw has caused him even more problems in the more seamer-friendly conditions outside the subcontinent: his overall average against pace is 32.01, but outside the subcontinent it drops by almost 10 runs, to 22.12. Against spin, on the other hand, his numbers look much better.

Dhoni v pace and spin
  Runs Balls faced Dismissals Average
Pace - overall 1633 2751 51 32.01
Spin - overall 1370 2311 27 50.74
Pace - outside subcontinent 730 1365 33 22.12
Spin - outside subcontinent 332 537 4 83.00

The two bowlers who have dismissed Dhoni most often in Tests are Dale Steyn and Muttiah Muralitharan. Both have nailed him four times each, but Steyn has the better average against him - 22.75, to Murali's 31. Five fast bowlers have dismissed him three times, of whom Corey Collymore and Fidel Edwards have the best averages - Collymore dismissed Dhoni three times on the 2006 tour, while Edwards had similar success earlier this year. Chris Tremlett has got him three times too, once in 2007 and twice at Lord's.

Fast bowlers who've dismissed Dhoni most often in Tests
Bowler Runs Balls Dismissals Average
Dale Steyn 91 162 4 22.75
Corey Collymore 22 49 3 7.33
Fidel Edwards 31 56 3 10.33
Chris Tremlett 51 97 3 17.00
Mitchell Johnson 62 156 3 20.67
Morne Morkel 120 178 3 40.00

Prior's stats suggest he is fairly comfortable playing both pace and spin - his overall average against pace is a handy 44.11, while he has done even better against spin.

Prior v pace and spin
  Runs Balls faced Dismissals Average
Pace - overall 1588 2278 36 44.11
Spin - overall 938 1484 15 62.53

Only three bowlers have dismissed Prior three or more times in Tests. One of them is playing in the current series: Sreesanth's ability to swing the ball has helped him account for Prior thrice in only 75 deliveries. All three dismissals were very early in Prior's innings, which suggests Dhoni should have Sreesanth at the bowling crease as soon as Prior walks in to bat.

Bowlers who've dismissed Prior at least three times in Tests
Bowler Runs Balls Dismissals Average
Peter Siddle 109 147 5 21.80
Sreesanth 37 75 3 12.33
Shakib Al Hasan 39 97 3 13.00

After 45 Tests, Prior averages 45.10 at an excellent strike rate and conversion rate of fifties to hundreds, which makes him the best batsman among wicketkeepers going around today. Dhoni and Brad Haddin are next on the list, with averages of around 40. The difference in averages isn't that much, but over this period Prior, more than any other wicketkeeper-batsman, has looked capable of playing match-changing innings more often than the others in the table below.

Highest averages for wicketkeeper-batsmen in Tests since Jan 2007 (Qual: 1000 runs)
Player Tests Runs Average Strike rate 100s/ 50s
Matt Prior 45 2526 45.10 67.03 6/ 18
MS Dhoni 44 2365 40.08 56.14 3/ 18
Brad Haddin 32 1905 39.68 58.74 3/ 8
Brendon McCullum 26 1625 36.93 61.36 3/ 9
Prasanna Jayawardene 30 1227 36.08 51.83 3/ 3
Mark Boucher 41 1641 32.82 48.99 1/ 10
Kamran Akmal 23 1267 31.67 63.79 2/ 8
Mushfiqur Rahim 22 1116 29.36 44.39 1/ 6

Dhoni obviously has a lot more on his plate than just batting and keeping wicket, but considering these two factors alone, there's little doubt as to who's the best at the moment in Test cricket. (Click here to see the all-time list of best averages for wicketkeeper-batsmen.)

S Rajesh is stats editor of Cricinfo

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Posted by SLOGOUTSLOGOUTSLOGOUT on (August 7, 2011, 16:52 GMT)

India Always Cry When They Lose ... They Make Silly Excuses When They Lose...1 Guy Said That " Its Unfair India is Losing Bcoz They Dont Have Full Strenght Side"Just Think For Sometime With Common Sense You Will Get The Answer.(If You Dont Get It Still) Whatever Who Cares About Your Team Its In Your BOARD's Hand And Your Management.

Posted by   on (August 7, 2011, 3:51 GMT)

What I like about both players is that they both bat like they are playing in the park. I think Prior just has the physique to pull it off while Dhoni really looks like he is way out of shape. I really do think that this is the big difference between the two players.

Posted by Ravi.Ajay on (August 7, 2011, 0:32 GMT)

No county team will select Dhoni as a wicket keeper batsman. For that matter, no associate team will select him for longer format of the game. Matt Prior is an excellent player. For people who says Dhoni earns so much compare to Matt Prior, 2nd division county teams also will not select Dhoni even he is ready to play them for free. lol

Posted by Ravi.Ajay on (August 7, 2011, 0:25 GMT)

No county team will select Dhoni as a wicket keeper batsman. For that matter, no associate team will select him for longer format of the game. Matt Prior is an excellent player. For people who says Dhoni earns so much compare to Matt Prior, 2nd division county teams also will not select Dhoni even he is ready to play them for free. lol

Posted by Nampally on (August 6, 2011, 20:36 GMT)

Yes, Prior has led England into recovery mode out of bad situations in each of the 2 tests. Dhoni was unable to finish England off from a poor situation at least 3 times. This has resulted in resounding wins for England. Dhoni has failed both as a captain, batsman & WK Prior won on 2 counts. The failure of England finished off India from a commanding position when Yuvraj & Dravid placed India in an excellent position and then India lost their last 6 wkts. for a record low. This has been the difference so far between the 2 teams. England bowlers & their WK led them to victories in batting as well as in bowling. India's poor batting from #6 onwards and inability to finish the England batting from #7. Now can India do better replacing Harbhajan with Mishra in the next 2 tests + Sehwag & Gambhir opening the innings? India hopes Mishra to finish England's # 7 to # 11 & Sehwag & Gambhir to blunt the England pace attack to let the rest of the batting to show up..Can this happen?

Posted by SDHM on (August 6, 2011, 19:13 GMT)

@Sitanshu - Prior only has four half centuries?! He's got six hundreds for god's sake!

Posted by   on (August 6, 2011, 13:36 GMT)

And yeah.... forget to mention that stats suggest he is a sheer flat track bully..... Parthiv is better choice then him in all circumstances!!!

Posted by   on (August 6, 2011, 13:33 GMT)

Dhoni is the most overrated player India have had in recent times.... People cannot digest the fact that he lack technique, doesn't have Sehwag-esque hand-eye coordination and moreover in every pressure situation (apart from WC final) he seems to hide behind others batsmen....... I even have felt it during IPL.... but one thing of his is quite outstanding.... He is VERY lucky......

Posted by tjsimonsen on (August 6, 2011, 9:51 GMT)

@zico123: NO, IT IS NOT UNFAIR! India are fielding the strongest side they can. They could have prepared better, they could have had better reserves (as England have), Sehwag could have had his surgery earlier. England have had injuries too, but due to their strength they have absorbed them - so far at any rate. That is another argument why England at the moment is the better team. I don't see you claiming that it was unfair that England only drew the 2006 series in India bacause they could only field approximately 2/3 of their settled 2004-2005 team, nor that it was unfair when India beat an injury depleted England in 2007. But now, when an ageing Indian team are starting to fall apart, it is suddenly unfair. What's next? Is it unfair that Tendulkar, Dravid and Laxman can't stay 29 for ever?

Posted by   on (August 6, 2011, 3:14 GMT)

what the article does not mention is the camparision in earlings of Dhoni and Prior. Then you will see Prior is no match ti Dhoni.

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S Rajesh Stats editor Every week the Numbers Game takes a look at the story behind the stats, with an original slant on facts and figures. The column is edited by S Rajesh, ESPNcricinfo's stats editor in Bangalore. He did an MBA in marketing, and then worked for a year in advertising, before deciding to chuck it in favour of a job which would combine the pleasures of watching cricket and writing about it. The intense office cricket matches were an added bonus.

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