Tactics board: Suryakumar-Tilak vs DC's spinners, a potential promotion for Stubbs?

The toss seems to be worth more at Wankhede Stadium than other venues. The true pitch, the small boundaries and the dew are a nightmare for teams batting first. Among the active IPL venues, Wankhede offers chasing sides the best win-loss ratio in night games over the last five years: 1.8. This year only Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) have defended successfully in a night game at Wankhede, scoring 221 and then just scraping home by 12 runs.

MI are much more likely to overcome the toss disadvantage. They have the batting to keep hitting through the 20 overs and post a par-plus total. However, they haven't yet been able to display how it can be done as they haven't batted first and won a night game at Wankhede this year.

They came close the one time they lost the toss, but that was on a seaming pitch. If they play on the same surface as they did against Gujarat Titans (GT), scoring just 155 and then taking the match to the last ball amid rain breaks, MI will back themselves because of a stronger pace attack. Especially given how DC are without Mitchell Starc, they might even want to play on the same track.

DC will have a taller order if they have to bat first. They are coming off a match where KL Rahul scored a hundred in a total of 199, which turned out to be inadequate. On the usual flat Mumbai track, DC will have to bat out of their skins to post a challenging total.

It is not a question of just intent. DC made 56 boundary attempts as against GT's 44 when they failed to defend 199. The conditions play a big role. The ball stops just a little when the pitch is fresh, but under lights it comes onto the bat beautifully. There are no match-ups or weak links for DC to exploit.

The one tweak they could make is promote Tristan Stubbs to No. 3 if the first wicket doesn't fall early. You can still have Abhishek Porel bat at 3 if the opportunity comes with a lot of powerplay deliveries left, but Stubbs has the highest ceiling among the DC batters after the openers. If DC find themselves batting first, it makes sense to give Stubbs as many deliveries as possible because what looks like a par score is never enough at Wankhede.

DC are a rare team whose spinners have done well against Suryakumar Yadav. Axar Patel has gone at under a run a ball, and Kuldeep Yadav got him out the last time he came up against Suryakumar. However, Tilak Varma more than makes up for it with a strike rate of 178 against both of the spinners. We might just see MI promote Tilak if they get off to a good start or Axar bringing himself on should Surya and Rohit Sharma bat together. That is one pairing MI should look to avoid: both go at under a run a ball against Axar and aren't great against Kuldeep either. Considering spin is DC's strength, don't bet against some flexibility in the order should Ryan Rickleton be the first batter dismissed.

MI love to bowl a lot of Deepak Chahar in the powerplay so that they have Boult and Jasprit Bumrah for the death overs. Chahar has never got Rahul out. He has bowled just 11 balls to Faf du Plessis but has gone for 22 runs for no wicket. The best scenario for DC is to attack Chahar, force MI to take him off and make him come back late or make Hardik Pandya bowl those overs.