Unbeaten New Zealand favourites against unsettled South Africa

The match we already knew was going to happen a week ago is upon us after South Africa and New Zealand both qualified for the tri-series final when Zimbabwe were knocked out last weekend. The teams have even had a dress rehearsal, when they met in a match on Tuesday, and New Zealand have a clear upper hand.

They are unbeaten in this event, with four wins from as many games, and have put in a quartet of clinical performances even as they have rotated through their squad. South Africa are yet to beat New Zealand in this competition, and are yet to settle on a combination with an inexperienced squad. The biggest issue is that they have routinely appeared a batter light, amplified by a struggling top order, and will need to put that right in the final.

Both teams are looking for their first trophy under a new coach, which has been the subplot to this contest. Both, South Africa's Shukri Conrad and New Zealand's Rob Walter, worked for the same side not long ago as Walter was South Africa's white-ball coach as recently as March. He took South Africa to the 2024 T20 World Cup final. But Walter's record in bilateral series, especially T20Is, was poor, and when he resigned, Conrad was given the all-format job.

South Africa won only one out of eight T20I series under Walter, and he always explained that as being because he did not have a full-strength squad available to him. Conrad was confident he would not face the same challenge, but in his first few matches in charge, has had to be without several regulars - including the captain Aiden Markram - and has had similar results. Though South Africa beat Zimbabwe twice, they were unable to get over the line against New Zealand. Conrad has a stronger playing group for his next assignment in Australia, but for now, he will want to get one over New Zealand to show what's possible with the country's next best.

Walter has not had it all his way with New Zealand so far either. Ben Sears, Lockie Ferguson, Kyle Jamieson and Kane Williamson were unavailable to play this series, and then Finn Allen had to withdraw with a foot injury. But Walter also used the opportunity to test depth and the waters in his first stint in charge. So far, he will be the happier of the two coaches with the results, but the final will determine who leaves with the biggest bragging rights.

South Africa: LWLWW (last five matches, most recent first)
New Zealand: WWWWW

After topping the SA20 run-charts last summer, big things were expected from Lhuan-dre Pretorius at the international level. But 32 runs in four T20Is must feel like a tough start for him. Pretorius started out opening the batting, and moved down No. 5 in the last round-robin match in what Conrad called an "experiment because I want to expose him to all sorts of situations and conditions". Conrad has retained Pretorius in his squad for the Australia tour next month, and will be keen to see how he copes with changes in pace, which have undone him thus far. For his part, Pretorius will not want to play any reckless shots, which he has done twice in four innings, and show he has the temperament to succeed at the highest level.

Jacob Duffy might struggle to get into New Zealand's XI if Jamieson or Ferguson were available. But with the pair not in the squad, Duffy has been able to step into the spotlight. He is the only bowler who has generated noticeable extra bounce from the Harare surfaces, and has used the short ball to his advantage. All five of Duffy's wickets have come against South Africa, and three with absolute snorters - the one to Gerald Coetzee in the fifth match was particularly memorable - and with an economy of 6.36, he has also been difficult to get away.

With Reeza Hendricks dropped from South Africa's white-ball sides to tour Australia, the final could be an important opportunity to show what he can do ahead of next year's T20 World Cup. Pretorius should join Hendricks at the top of the order. South Africa like to use allrounders, so Senuran Muthusamy, George Linde and Corbin Bosch could all play, while a decision will be made on whether to go with an extra spinner in Nqaba Peter or seamer in Kwena Maphaka.

South Africa (probable): 1 Reeza Hendricks, 2 Lhuan-dre Pretorius (wk), 3 Rassie van der Dussen (capt), 4 Rubin Hermann, 5 Dewald Brevis, 6 Senuran Muthusamy, 7 George Linde, 8 Corbin Bosch, 9 Nandre Burger, 10 Nqaba Peter/Kwena Maphaka, 11 Lungi Ngidi

Devon Conway could be back to partner in-form Tim Seifert at the top, while Bevon Jacobs might lose out to Daryl Mitchell. With their seamers all in good form, New Zealand could likely pick four of Zakary Foulkes, Will O'Rourke, Matt Henry, Adam Milne and Duffy.

New Zealand (probable): 1 Tim Seifert (wk), 2 Devon Conway, 3 Rachin Ravindra, 4 Daryl Mitchell, 5 Mark Chapman, 6 Michael Bracewell, 7 Mitchell Santner (capt), 8 Zakary Foulkes, 9 Will O'Rourke, 10 Matt Henry/Adam Milne, 11 Jacob Duffy

In five of the six matches (apart from the last one between Zimbabwe and New Zealand on Thursday), the captain who has won the toss has chosen to chase. Batting against the new ball in the early afternoon has proved tricky, and seamers have found that bowling just back of a length is most effective. It has been difficult for spinners to get among the wickets, and for batters to score as quickly - as has become the norm in the T20 game. Expect a run rate of around eight an over.

"The final on Saturday will give us a really good idea of where everybody's at. I'll be disappointed if we didn't put up a bold showing, and try and get one over New Zealand. It's been exciting on a personal level. Just in the blink of an eye, the game's finished, you've got to pack your bags, and go back to the hotel. It's certainly not as drawn out as a Test match."
South Africa's coach Shukri Conrad is settling into the white-ball role

"Throughout this series, we've done a lot of good stuff. Different guys stepping up at times is always a good thing, and does give us a bit of a selection headache."
New Zealand's captain Mitchell Santner was all smiles after they finished the group stage with the maximum points