Who will be Australia's spear to Usman Khawaja's shield?

In the grand theatre of Ashes cricket, as ever, a good start still tells the oldest story: lay the foundations and the fortress will stand.

Cricket's oldest and most storied rivalry remains a cauldron of pressure, expectation and tactical nuance, evolving since 1877 into a cultural event steeped in national pride and sporting legacy. While the public spotlight often tends to be on dominant bowlers, middle-order centuries, or dramatic collapses, an enduring truth confirmed by historical data is that victory in Ashes Test matches is often founded on a strong start - particularly resilient and productive opening batting partnerships. Over the past 35 years, data for Australian and English Test sides indicates that a solid foundation at the top of the order is not just advantageous but decisive.

In a series where the margin for error is often razor-thin, a strong opening partnership transcends mere statistics; it sets the psychological tone. Such a partnership absorbs the pressure of the new ball, effectively drains the early aggression from opposition bowlers, and provides a crucial platform for the middle order, whether for stability or acceleration. In the Ashes, given the heightened intensity, this pattern is magnified more than in many other bilateral contests. Multiple analyses and match data over recent decades affirm the correlation between robust opening stands and positive match outcomes.

Australia's sustained Ashes dominance during the period between 1990 and now was largely anchored by three exceptional opening pairs. These batters were revered not just for statistical consistency but for their critical contributions in pivotal Ashes campaigns.

The partnership of Matthew Hayden and Justin Langer (1999-2007) stand out arguably as Australia's most celebrated opening pair in the modern era, forming the bedrock of a dominant Test side. They opened together in 113 innings, accumulating 5655 runs at an imposing average of 51.88. Crucially, they registered 14 century and 24 half-century partnerships. Their performances in the Ashes were formidable, particularly in the comprehensive home victories in the 2002-03 and 2006-07 series. They consistently blunted the England attack, often negating the new-ball threat within the opening hour. Their ability to score at a measured rate while preserving wickets perfectly complemented Australia's aggressive middle order, demonstrating a durable, muscular method.

Following them, David Warner and Chris Rogers (2013-2015) offered a blend of dynamism and discipline. Despite being a relatively short partnership of just 41 innings, they amassed 2053 runs at an average of 51.32. Rogers' stoic technique was the ideal balance to Warner's explosiveness. Their adaptability was pivotal in helping Australia regain the Ashes during the 2013-14 home series, laying down crucial early platforms. This pair recorded nine century and seven half-century stands in their Tests together.

Preceding these modern pairs were Mark Taylor and Michael Slater (1993-1999). Opening in 78 innings, they accumulated 3887 runs at an average of 51.14, with ten century and 16 fifty stands. While Slater usually attacked from the outset, Taylor's calm and balancing presence ensured Australia rarely found themselves under undue pressure in the first session. Their synergy and balance were instrumental in Australia's sustained dominance during the mid-1990s.

The success of these pairs is borne out by statistics. The win percentage of teams when there is a 50-run opening stand is about 39%, which rises to 44% when the opening partnership scores 100 or more. Opening stands of under 50 runs are accompanied by a win rate of about 31%. You can imagine this trend holds particularly true in Ashes Tests, where early wickets can trigger pressure-induced collapses due to the consistently high quality of seam bowling on both sides.

A 2013 statistical study published in the Sri Lankan Journal of Applied Statistics, titled "An Investigation of Synergy Between Batsmen in Opening Partnerships" explores this aspect. It affirmed that in Ashes Tests, opening partnerships significantly affected match outcomes, especially when the batters displayed effective synergy - complementing each other's strengths and mitigating weaknesses. It was found that "opening partnerships with synergy - even with moderate averages - had a statistically significant positive influence on the probability of team victory in Ashes Tests". The study concluded that the ability of pairs to function as cohesive units was a stronger predictor of winning outcomes than standalone brilliance or individual averages.

In matches where the Australian pairs posted partnerships of 50-plus runs, Hayden and Langer's sides achieved victories 65.7% of the time, those of Warner and Rogers 56.3%, and Taylor and Slater's, 65.3%.

England's current opening pair, Zak Crawley and Ben Duckett, embody a stark tactical departure from the Australian pairs. Their approach is aligned with the "Bazball" philosophy, which prioritises tempo and aggression. Between 2022 and 2025, they have opened in 73 innings, scoring 2281 runs at a moderate average of 32.12. Their strike rate of 72.38 is nearly double that of traditional openers like Taylor and Langer. They have three century and 14 half-century stands.

While England's modern approach is exhilarating to watch, their win rate in matches with stands of 50-plus runs is just 47.3%, significantly lower than all three noted Australian pairs above. This contrast underscores a vital nuance: while the English pair might have the edge in being incendiary, scoring quickly does not always correlate with consistent match-winning outcomes. History shows that durable, synergistic and consistent big opening partnerships are most likely to decide the outcome in close and hard-fought contests.

As Australia look ahead, the selectors face a crucial decision at the top of the order, one heavily influenced by the historical mandate. Ideally, they will want to show faith in the promising youth of Sam Konstas for the first Test. His treatment by the selectors since his debut has been quixotic. Considering that it takes an individual ten Tests, at least, to work out if he fits at this level, and how to succeed, Konstas not being picked in Sri Lanka was unfathomable. So much so that he is now on the outside looking in when he could have been lining up for his first Ashes Test and perhaps a long and distinguished career.

The fact that Queensland's Matt Renshaw has begun the domestic season in imperious form means that the selectors might be swayed towards the safe hands of the two Queenslanders - Usman Khawaja being the other.

Renshaw is a specialist opener with a connection to Khawaja. The two are domestic opening partners, and the established synergy between them is of the sort that has historically been a hallmark of the best Ashes opening pairs. This weighs heavily in Renshaw's favour. Despite the potential imbalance of having two left-handers, they complement each other well: Khawaja prefers to play off the back foot, while Renshaw can hurt the opposition down the ground if bowlers fail to adjust their length from one player to the other.

The selectors are unlikely to want to experiment with their opening combination, as they have with Steven Smith and Travis Head recently, in such an important series, and Marnus Labuschagne's rich form may entice them to bat him in his normal spot at No. 3 and slide the bowling-fit Cameron Green to the more suitable No. 6 spot and use him as the allrounder. That means Beau Webster will be the unlucky one to miss out on the final XI which already looks more definitive than it did as little as two weeks ago.

A left-field choice that might tempt the panel, if they want to fight fire with fire, would be to consider Mitchell Marsh, the current T20 captain. Marsh is in good form and possesses the ability to counterattack with the best of them. He is regarded as one of the best players of pace in the country and comes from a long line of openers, his father and older brother having opened. However, the move would be a risk the selectors might not be prepared to take unless Marsh has changed his mind about taking on the family business.

Renshaw's timing has been impeccable - he has made runs at the right time; and in batting, as is well known, timing is everything. The fact that he has been included in the ODI squad for the series against India suggests that he is in mind as Khawaja's partner for Perth. As a former selector, I would support that decision.

Opening partnerships matter profoundly in Ashes Test cricket. While attacking starts, such as those offered by the Duckett and Crawley partnership, are exhilarating, durable and synergistic partnerships provide the strategic control and psychological upper hand necessary in the longest and most intense format. From Hayden and Langer's muscular method to Taylor and Slater's balance, Australia's most successful openers over the past 35 years have served reliably as both shield and spear. England's current pair offer a compelling modern model, but one that must still prove it can consistently deliver wins at the elite Ashes level.

Ultimately, the selection of Khawaja's partner must prioritise that crucial foundation, ensuring that the necessary shield is built before the fireworks can truly begin, thereby guaranteeing that the fortress will stand.