A predictor's nightmare

For a fan, the build-up to a major sporting event is agony. There's unbearable tension during the long wait for: "Gentlemen, start your engines," or "On your marks, get set" and then the crack of the starter's pistol. In the case of an Ashes series it seems to be an interminable time between the first shots fired in the verbal war and the simple wave of the arm that precedes the umpire's one-word command: "Play."

However, once the first ball is delivered, every fan wants to know: "Who'll win the series?" That is, unless it's a Steve Harmison-style unguided missile straight to second slip. In that case, Harmison's embarrassing Gabba start made Glenn McGrath's pre-series prediction of a 5-0 win to Australia sound pretty sane.

This time round there'll be no Harmison factor and the series could be well advanced before we get a vital clue as to who will win.

For months I've been vacillating between first England and then Australia to win this highly anticipated series. Originally I thought England had the better attack and therefore would win. Then I saw them bat against Pakistan and it dawned on me that this mob has a dicey batting line-up.

Soon after, I watched Mitchell Johnson's disastrous bowling against India. If he reproduces that form in Australia, Ricky Ponting can kiss the Ashes goodbye. Despite the fact that Johnson has a history of bowling better under Australian conditions, Ponting will harbour thoughts similar to those harboured by the "Iron Duke", Arthur Wellesley, before he tosses the ball to Johnson at the Gabba. Prior to the battle of Waterloo, Wellesley famously critiqued his own army: "I don't know what effect these men will have upon the enemy, but by God, they frighten me."

Johnson can be such a devastating force that he could win the Player-of-the-Series award and bowl Australia to victory. On the other hand, if he gets it horribly wrong, then not only will Australia lose but Johnson could be omitted from the team before the series is half over. That's just one of the reasons why this series is hard to decipher.

The unpredictable weather is also having an effect. The ball has been dominating the bat in the damp start to the season and if the trend continues it'll favour the English attack.

The wiry Jimmy Anderson is lethal in conditions that suit swing bowling. Regular Anderson breakthroughs with the new ball will enhance Graeme Swann's dipping, hard-spun offbreaks and Australia's uncertainty in the middle order will be more exposed than John o' Groats.

Australia don't have a combination to match that dynamic duo, although conditions that suit Anderson will also make the much-improved Ben Hilfenhaus a force.

The fact that so far, conditions have been bowler-friendly, brings into even sharper focus each team's foremost attacking batsman - Ponting and Kevin Pietersen. If either rediscovers his dominant form, then that side will shoot to the favourites' spot faster than a heavily backed thoroughbred. Of the two, Ponting is technically better equipped to handle the moving ball. He has the added advantage of following the more reliable opening partnership in Shane Watson and Simon Katich.

If Johnson's international future is clouded, then Alastair Cook's is shrouded in mist. If Cook struggles, not only will it add to Andrew Strauss's already heavy mental load, it'll also increase Australia's chances of getting Pietersen in while the ball is new. This will suit Australia's plans to contain Pietersen, and if they're successful then England's totals won't be adequate.

If either side makes a substantial total batting first, it will place enormous pressure on the opposition's response. However, if the totals tend more towards the meagre end of the scale, they'll make for some hard-fought matches, and potentially, a series to rival the titanic Ashes struggle in 2005.

Other factors making this series such a nightmare to predict are the uncertainty over Australia's middle-order batting and their injury concerns. This is a far cry from the heady 16 years between mid-1989 and mid-2005, when Australia were the dominant force and predicting Ashes results was a simple matter of choosing a number between 1 and 5 to precede the nil automatically allocated to England.

This time a pundit will have to earn his money, and even McGrath could be made to look human. I've finally settled on Australia as slight favourites, purely because they are playing at home and because of the likelihood of at least one Ponting batting masterpiece. However, I'm posting that prediction with fear and trepidation, just like Nathan Hauritz waiting for the phone to ring.