Bangladesh face uphill task after England win
An analysis of various scenarios that determine qualification for the quarter-finals from Group B
Madhusudhan Ramakrishnan
17-Mar-2011
Bangladesh must beat South Africa to ensure qualification • Getty Images
England's tremendous comeback against West Indies gave them an 18-run victory in their must-win encounter in Chennai. With that victory, they have given themselves every chance of qualifying for the quarter-finals. South Africa are the only team from Group B who have ensured qualification and there are a number of possible scenarios that will decide both the teams qualifying and the position of the teams that qualify for the knockouts.
Scenario 1: Bangladesh lose to South Africa and India beat West Indies
In this case, Bangladesh will be eliminated because of their inferior net run rate. South Africa will finish top of the group with ten points and India will finish second with nine points. England and West Indies will finish third and fourth respectively.
In this case, Bangladesh will be eliminated because of their inferior net run rate. South Africa will finish top of the group with ten points and India will finish second with nine points. England and West Indies will finish third and fourth respectively.
Scenario 2: Bangladesh beat South Africa and West Indies beat India
England will be hoping this scenario does not happen. If Bangladesh beat South Africa, they will move to eight points and West Indies will also finish on eight if they beat India. With three teams level on points and number of wins, the net run rate will decide the standings. West Indies and South Africa will take the top two spots and Bangladesh the third spot. India will edge out England for the fourth position barring a huge defeat against West Indies.
England will be hoping this scenario does not happen. If Bangladesh beat South Africa, they will move to eight points and West Indies will also finish on eight if they beat India. With three teams level on points and number of wins, the net run rate will decide the standings. West Indies and South Africa will take the top two spots and Bangladesh the third spot. India will edge out England for the fourth position barring a huge defeat against West Indies.
A highly unlikely situation that can result in England's progress at the expense of India is if West Indies make 300 and dismiss India for 117 or if West Indies can dismiss India for 150 and chase the target down in 20.3 overs.
Scenario 3: Bangladesh beat South Africa and India beat West Indies
This scenario will eliminate West Indies as they will finish on six points as compared to Bangladesh and England, who will have eight and seven points respectively. India will move to the top spot with nine points and South Africa by virtue of a higher net run rate will finish above Bangladesh in second position.
This scenario will eliminate West Indies as they will finish on six points as compared to Bangladesh and England, who will have eight and seven points respectively. India will move to the top spot with nine points and South Africa by virtue of a higher net run rate will finish above Bangladesh in second position.
Scenario 4: Bangladesh lose to South Africa and India lose to West Indies
This scenario will pitchfork West Indies to the second spot, with eight points. South Africa will lead the group with 10, while India and England will both make the cut, with seven points, and their positions will be decided by NRR. With three wins and three losses, Bangladesh's campaign will end on six points.
This scenario will pitchfork West Indies to the second spot, with eight points. South Africa will lead the group with 10, while India and England will both make the cut, with seven points, and their positions will be decided by NRR. With three wins and three losses, Bangladesh's campaign will end on six points.
Scenario 5: A washout or a tie in the Bangladesh v South Africa game
If points are split in Mirpur, Bangladesh will finish level with England on seven points, but with a poorer NRR. This will confirm England's passage, while Bangladesh's hopes of progressing will rest on India either beating West Indies, or losing by a margin huge enough to bring their NRR crashing down below Bangladesh's. A close West Indian victory in Chennai will, however, end Bangladesh's World Cup.
If points are split in Mirpur, Bangladesh will finish level with England on seven points, but with a poorer NRR. This will confirm England's passage, while Bangladesh's hopes of progressing will rest on India either beating West Indies, or losing by a margin huge enough to bring their NRR crashing down below Bangladesh's. A close West Indian victory in Chennai will, however, end Bangladesh's World Cup.
Scenario 6: A washout or a tie in the India v West Indies game
This is a scenario England will be hoping against, if Bangladesh manage to upset South Africa in Mirpur. With eight points each, Bangladesh, South Africa and India will then make the cut, while West Indies will pip England for the fourth spot on NRR despite being tied on seven points. If Bangladesh, however, lose in Mirpur, a tie or washout in Chennai will leave India second in the table behind South Africa, while West Indies and England will qualify in third and fourth positions.
This is a scenario England will be hoping against, if Bangladesh manage to upset South Africa in Mirpur. With eight points each, Bangladesh, South Africa and India will then make the cut, while West Indies will pip England for the fourth spot on NRR despite being tied on seven points. If Bangladesh, however, lose in Mirpur, a tie or washout in Chennai will leave India second in the table behind South Africa, while West Indies and England will qualify in third and fourth positions.
In the highly-unlikely event that both games are either tied or washed out, India will move up to eight points and second on the table, while England, West Indies and Bangladesh will finish with seven points. With the poorest NRR of the three, Bangladesh will again be the team missing out.