Ranji Trophy scenarios - Mumbai in must-win to make quarter-finals

Only three teams - Karnataka, Delhi and Vidarbha - are in the quarter-finals even as the Ranji Trophy league phase enters the final round. Fighting for survival are domestic giants Mumbai, who meet Tripura at home, defending champions Gujarat, the unheralded Andhra and the much-improved Kerala, under new coach Dav Whatmore.

Karnataka and Delhi are through, of course, but who will emerge as the table toppers? If both sides win, that honour will go to Karnataka. But if Karnataka are forced to settle for a draw, and only Delhi win, then Delhi will be No. 1. The prospect of Mumbai - should they win - taking on the topper of this group adds a delicious subplot.

Imagine being knocked out despite winning four games. That is the reality facing one of Gujarat, Saurashtra or Kerala.

A loss to Kerala in the previous round has put Saurashtra in a must-win situation. But the thing is, even six points may not guarantee qualification if both Kerala and Gujarat record victories (without bonus points) against Haryana in Lahli and Jharkhand, last year's semi-finalists in Ranchi.

If Saurashtra concede a first-innings lead to Rajasthan in Jaipur, Gujarat and Kerala will progress. But if Saurashtra pick up seven points - winning by an innings or by 10 wickets - and Gujarat and Kerala win normally, it could lead to a two-way tie. In such a scenario, Kerala will pip Saurashtra on virtue of more outright wins.

There is also a remote possibility that all three are tied on 30 points. This could happen if Kerala take six points, Saurashtra win with a bonus point and Gujarat walk away with a first-innings lead. Under these circumstances, Kerala will top the group by virtue of most wins, while Saurashtra could upset Gujarat on better net run rate.

Kerala can be knocked out if they lose and Saurashtra claim either a lead or a win.

Rarely have Mumbai had to scrap as hard as they have had to this season and while that adds to their grand khadoos legacy, they would much rather prefer being in the driver's seat for their last league match of the season. Nothing less than a win will help them qualify.

What works to Mumbai's advantage is they play a side that has never progressed to the Ranji Trophy knockouts: Tripura, currently bottom of the group having conceded the lead in four out of five games. If Mumbai only manage a first-innings lead, they have to hope Madhya Pradesh lose outright to Odisha.

Andhra have no more matches so can only wish other results go their way. It is a strange position for a table-topper to be in. As things stand, Madhya Pradesh and Mumbai can leapfrog them. So Andhra will have to hope one of the two don't win outright.

Madhya Pradesh are in control of their destiny. A win against Odisha will ensure they finish on top of the group. They can qualify even off a first-innings lead provided Mumbai do not win. If Madhya Pradesh lose, they have to hope Tripura inflict a massive upset over Mumbai.

Tamil Nadu's chances are quite slim. If they win normally, they have to hope both Mumbai and Madhya Pradesh lose. If they win with a bonus point, they have to hope Madhya Pradesh lose and Mumbai finish with just a first-innings lead. In short, things are beyond their control.

Baroda too have an outside chance. They have to beat Tamil Nadu, and hope both Madhya Pradesh and Mumbai lose.

With Vidarbha through, the fight is between Bengal, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh.

Bengal are the frontrunners and will progress if they pocket a first-innings lead. They could, however, be knocked out if they lose to Goa or concede a lead, and Punjab record an outright win over Services.

Himachal can progress only if Bengal and Punjab lose their respective matches, and they beat Vidarbha with a bonus point.