Stats Analysis

How West Indies can qualify for the semi-finals

Qualification scenarios after West Indies put their first points on the board

S Rajesh
S Rajesh
Nicholas Pooran leads the team off after a slim win, Bangladesh vs West Indies, T20 World Cup, Group 1, Sharjah, October 29, 2021

Nicholas Pooran leads the team off after a slim win  •  ICC via Getty

West Indies' thrilling three-run win against Bangladesh means they are still in the hunt for a semi-final spot. To get there, they must win their last two games and finish on six points. (There is a possibility of five teams finishing on four points with England topping with 10, but given West Indies' net run rate, that is not a route they'd want to take.)
Assuming West Indies finish on six points, here is how they can qualify without NRR coming into play:
- England must win at least two of their three remaining matches. That includes beating Australia, and winning at least one of their two remaining games, against Sri Lanka or South Africa.
- Australia to lose all three remaining matches. They already have four points, and from West Indies' point of view, they wouldn't want any addition to that tally.
- Sri Lanka and South Africa to win no more than one of their two remaining matches. Both teams currently have two points, and play each other on Saturday. They also have games against England coming up, which means the team that wins on Saturday should lose to England.
- Bangladesh must beat Australia, since Australia already have four. If they lose to South Africa, then South Africa must in turn lose to England so that they don't move beyond four points.
If all of these happen, then West Indies can progress without run rates coming into play. To start with, though, they need to keep their end of the bargain and win their two remaining games - against Sri Lanka on November 4, and Australia on November 6. Given that five more Group 1 matches would have happened by the time they take the field again, they will have a pretty good idea of where they stand before their next game.

S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats