The world where Lyon doesn't play at the Gabba

When Nathan Lyon was left out of the Jamaica Test earlier this year it was called a one-off, but there is at least a chance of a repeat when the Ashes reaches Brisbane next week if the conditions and England's frantic batting style mean his bowling is likely to be limited in the pink-ball Test at the Gabba.

The selectors omitted Lyon from the final Test in the West Indies when the surface and data on the behaviour of the pink Dukes ball suggested that spin was not going to be required.

That decision proved correct as the game ended in less than two-and-a-half days with no batter reaching 50 and West Indies being bowled out for 27 in the fourth innings when Mitchell Starc took 6 for 9 and Scott Boland claimed a hat-trick.

It was deemed an outcome based on a rare set of circumstances, with the selectors saying they have a clear reluctance to leave him out in Australian conditions given Lyon's home record. Lyon was adamant he could play a role in any conditions. But he bowled just two overs in Perth as England batted for just 67 across two innings. He also bowled just one over in last year's pink-ball Test in Adelaide against India and did not bowl a ball in the last Ashes pink-ball Test in Hobart in January 2022.

Australia coach Andrew McDonald confirmed that the selectors would discuss the option, as part of their normal selection process, but stressed that there is a risk to leaving Lyon out in Australian pink-ball Tests because he can be needed in the afternoon sessions when the ball gets soft quickly.

Lyon has only missed one home Test since his debut, early in his career in 2012 against India at the WACA when Australia went with an all-pace attack.

"The conditions in the West Indies, we were on the record around saying it was compelling to leave Nathan out," McDonald said on Monday.

"It's not something that we like doing. It's not a starting point for anything. And even if you look at the Perth Test match, people will sort of question that he only bowled two overs and speculation will begin for the pink-ball Test. But we felt as though in the Perth Test, if that game had been elongated, that the spinner would have come into the Test.

"It wasn't to be. Both batting units on day one, there was a lot of error in that which accelerated the game. So I don't think it's something that we sit here right now and decide upon. It's something when we get there, we look at the conditions, the pink ball and how it goes.

"And if you looked at Australian pink ball cricket in general terms, the middle sessions have been quite benign, and Nathan's done a lot of work there. So I think to jump to the conclusion that you'd automatically assume that it's just going to be another [fast] bowler sort of dominated game, we can't make those assumptions.

"Will we ask ourselves the question? Of course. We do every game."

Despite Lyon bowling one over in Australia's last home pink-ball Test and none in the last pink-ball Ashes Test in Australia, it would be a significant risk to leave him out based off the evidence of the previous pink-ball Test in Brisbane in January of 2024.

In sapping humid conditions against West Indies, Lyon was required to bowl 50 overs across the Test including 28 in the first innings after West Indies won the toss. As McDonald alluded to, the surface was very benign in the afternoon session between tea and dinner.

That Gabba pitch had much less grass on it than the Adelaide pink-ball pitches normally do and the ball got very soft, very quickly and offered minimal little zip or sideways movement in that period of play for Australia's big three quicks.

Lyon broke a key 149-run partnership between Joshua Da Silva and Kavem Hodge before also removing Kevin Sinclair for 50 early on the second afternoon. He also took two key wickets early in West Indies second innings when the visitors were building a lead during the daylight hours on day three and finished with five wickets for the match at economy rate of 2.46. Starc and Josh Hazlewood also took five wickets for the match while Pat Cummins only picked up one.

Lyon also bowled 24.5 overs in Australia's only other pink-ball Test in Brisbane against Sri Lanka in 2019. Overall in day-night Tests he has 43 wickets at 25.62.

But through no fault of his own, Australia's pitches more broadly are making Lyon more and more redundant. He only bowled six overs in the SCG Test against India earlier this year and five in the first innings in Perth last year, although he was needed to bowl heavily in the second innings when Hazlewood was injured.

Unlike India, however, England's batting approach may make Lyon as redundant as the pitches do. England were in exactly the same position in Perth as India were the year before on day two but were bowled out in 34.4 overs after only batting for 32.5 in the first innings. All indications are that England will double down in Brisbane, rather that revise the batting plan that failed miserably in Perth.

Lyon is a good match-up for Ben Duckett, Ollie Pope and Ben Stokes in particular, but Duckett and Pope's streaky approach to the quicks and Stokes' inability to see off Starc raises questions about whether Australia would be better served with another quick or extra batting.

Dropping Lyon for Cummins could be an option that is discussed given the captain's workloads, on return from injury, could be kept low in a four-man pace attack with the added help of Cameron Green who also only bowled three overs in Perth.

Another left-field option would be to consider Beau Webster in place of Lyon which would lengthen Australia's batting to No. 8, given their tail is relatively weak without Cummins. Webster could fill the holding overs that Lyon might be required for in the daylight hours if England's batters did settle in for an extended period. But that would be a significant gamble on the part of Australia's selectors.

McDonald said that Australia had "a lot to consider" in regards to the batting order in the wake of Travis Head's performance as a last minute substitute for Usman Khawaja. There's no doubt the same will apply to Lyon's role, as reluctant as they might be to consider it.