Bangladesh and Bermuda to struggle

Sporting Index have excelled themselves with a plethora of spread betting markets on the World Cup and there are a host of intriguing bets to get our teeth into.

Sporting have already come undone with one of their markets - the total sixes, which has been backed down from 370 to 310-330, reminiscent, if not quite as bad as the 1999 fiasco when they lost a fortune on the total wides market.

The first one to take a look at is Total Runs, which is now trading at 20,850-21100. With 51 matches to be played in the tournament, that averages out at about 408-413 per match. That might seem pretty low, but with eight distinctly average teams in the 16-team competition - there are bound to be more than a few low scores, which will bring it down. Also, West Indies pitches, these days, are notoriously slow, so I don't expect there to be too many matches with huge aggregate totals, so the price is probably about right.

Bangladesh overrated
One price that I think is wrong, though, is Bangladesh's total runs spread, at 720-800. While they average 237 per innings and have even won 17 of their past 20 matches, that is totally misleading as almost all of them were against Zimbabwe, who are awful.

This market basically depends on two things. If you think Bangladesh will go through to the Super Eight stage, then you obviously buy as they will end up playing nine matches, at least. However, if you think they will go out in the group stage, they will play just three, and therefore it's almost certainly a sell. If Bermuda, the weakest team in their group, bat first, then there is a pretty good chance they will be out for very few, and a win of more than 100 points is possible. Obviously this is hugely volatile, but all things being equal, West Indies and Pakistan should advance instead.

Sell at 720 for small stakes and if Bangladesh beat either Sri Lanka or India, then you may have to get out for a loss, but with any luck, it should not come to that.

Poor Bermuda
The second interesting market concerns Bermuda, and their total runs in the tournament.

They play three matches in their group and I think it's safe to say that they won't get through, as India and Sri Lanka are far too good and Bangladesh will beat them as well.

Sporting Index make their run total 360-380 and honestly, that looks too high as well. They have no idea against spin, which means Muttiah Muralitharan must be licking his lips and almost all their batting line-up has never played at anything even close to international level so there is every chance that we may see something around the 45 all out they managed against England in a warm-up game.

This one looks a solid sell, so hope they struggle big-time on their World Cup debut!