England now outsiders as Vaughan misses out

The injured Michael Vaughan's absence will be keenly felt by his teammates in Pakistan © Getty Images

England's odds for the first Test against Pakistan starting in Multan on Saturday have been drifting throughout the week and bet365 now make them 5/2 (3.50) outsiders to take an early lead in the three-match series.

Having begun the tour as favourites to take the Test series, a combination of poor form and bad luck have seen their price drift for the first Test, which starts in Multan on Saturday. A knee injury to captain Michael Vaughan - which rules him out of the first Test and could even put him out of the entire series - has rocked England´s plans and defeat by Pakistan A has knocked their confidence as they prepare for the first of the three Tests.

Pakistan are now 21/10 (3.10) for victory in Multan - the shortest price they have been yet - and the draw is the favourite at 23/20 (2.15).

While England wait for news of the real extent of Vaughan´s injury, they also have worries over their batting, which has been fragile, to put it nicely, in the warm-up games. While Marcus Trescothick, who will lead the side in Vaughan´s absence, did hit a century, only Paul Collingwood and Andrew Strauss have shown any kind of form with the bat.

Andrew Flintoff looks a little rusty while Kevin Pietersen has been all over the place. Both are big-match players, though, and after their Ashes exploits, their confidence should still be high and they will be trying their utmost to succeed in Multan.

England have only won two of their 21 Tests in Pakistan, so they would not have been massive favourites to win in Multan, even if they had have played well in the build-up to the game. Pakistan are no world-beaters, but their home record is good. In 138 Tests, they have won 51, lost just 21 and drawn 66. That last statistic could prove to be the key as 17 of the 21 Tests between the two sides, in Pakistan, have been drawn. 23/20 (2.15) is probably a fair price.

England´s new-found attacking style that worked so well against Australia in the summer will be much harder to repeat on the slow, dusty pitches of Pakistan, where the heat will also be a big factor. With Vaughan missing, it will be the first real test of the stomach of this England team since his accession to the captaincy. Vaughan has won 19 of his 31 Tests as captain, and England will not be the same without him.