Cummins says he's 'less likely than likely' to play in the first Ashes Test

Australia captain Pat Cummins says he is "less likely than likely" to play in the first Test against England as he begins running for the first time following his back injury with less than six weeks to go before the series starts in Perth.

Cummins' back has been almost a daily talking point in Australia since it was revealed he has a lumbar bone stress issue in early September. He has not bowled a ball since Australia's last Test series in the Caribbean in July.

Speaking at Kayo Sports' Summer of Cricket Launch in Sydney on Monday, Cummins was sober about his chances of playing in the first Test in Perth against England on November 21.

"I'd say probably less likely than likely," Cummins said. "But we've still got a bit of time.

"I'm running today and running kind of every second day, and each runs a little bit longer, and then we get into bowling prep next week. So I'm probably a couple of weeks away before actually putting on the spikes and bowling out on the turf. But it's been a good couple of weeks. Each session feels better and better."

Cummins was asked how long he would actually need to prepare his body to play in a Test match.

"You'd want probably at least a month in the nets," he said. "If you are to play in a Test match, you want to make sure you are right to bowl 20 overs in a day and you don't have to think about it. Four weeks is pretty tight, but I think somewhere around that mark."

Cummins added his back was feeling better having taken a long time to settle after the lumbar bone stress was initially diagnosed.

But he outlined that even going from low level running to bowling is going to be a slow process as he needs to do specific gym work to reactivate his bowling muscles and see how his back responds before heading to the nets.

"It's kind of a little bit stiff, just probably a little bit from the injury but then also because it hasn't been used for a while," Cummins said. "Each session you do a little bit of run and make sure you pull up alright. So I'm actually feeling really good at the moment. A few of the symptoms hung around for a little bit longer than I would have liked but they're all gone now. I'm just trying to kind of increase the workload and make sure body's responding.

"Some of the gym work becomes a bit more bowling prep work. So you do a lot more kind of getting your muscles ready, side holds to try to simulate that. Maybe some med ball work, but trying to kind of transition before you actually go into the nets and start bowling."

Australia coach Andrew McDonald said last week that a decision on Cummins' availability for the first Test would likely be made on Friday following a week of increased running and gym work. But the coach was confident his skipper would play a part in the Ashes even if he wasn't ready for the first Test. Cummins was cautious about specifying how many Tests he could play in the series.

"I think it's a bit early to know," Cummins said. "With these things it's pretty hard to go from not bowling or anything at all to suddenly playing five Tests. First steps are trying to kind of give us a shot at being right, and then we'll work it out a bit closer to time."

Cummins admitted he had some level of frustration surrounding the timing of the injury and the prospect of missing part of the Ashes series.

"Some days I'm kind of annoyed because it's the Ashes, and it's a big summer and then other days I'm kind of realistic," Cummins said. "I've had the last seven or eight years of almost uninterrupted home summers, so I felt like I've had a really good run as a fast bowler.

"Someone like Josh [Hazlewood], he's been a little bit more unlucky, so maybe it's my turn. But it's such a big summer ahead. Obviously, you want to be in a mix, even with the India One-Day series and T20 series, I wish I was part of that. But it's not to be. It's part of cricket. You're going to get injuries."

Cummins was confident that the injury would not affect him long term given Australia has huge period of cricket looming in 2026 and 2027 beyond this summer's Ashes and T20 World Cup.

"It's a back injury that I haven't had for about seven or eight years, and I've played a lot of cricket between that," he said. "So if anything looking back when I was, say, 20 years old and I had this injury, I was a bit worried about what my body could actually handle. But I know in myself that if I get it right, do it properly, when I come back I shouldn't have to worry about it all. And hopefully I can play as much, even more cricket than I had previously in the last few years."