McGrath could be there for the taking

Glenn McGrath has been one of the world's finest bowlers for more than a decade but the signs are that he could be in decline. StatsonSport take a look at what we can expect from "Pigeon" in this series.

In the world of international cricket, not many would dispute that if, at the age of nearly 37, you start producing your worst set of results since you were a novice, you are close to the end.

Sporting careers, if left to reach their natural conclusions, tend to tail off quickly once the body fails to respond in the way it used to. Nor will many sportsmen be trusted to regain failing powers at such an age.

A fair indication of current form is how you have done over your last 10 matches. If,at Brisbane next week, Glenn McGrath takes his wickets at more than 33 runs apiece he will find himself with a 10-match bowling average over 30.00 for the first time since his 11th Test at Antigua in 1995.

This is serious decline for a man of his powers. To put it in context, Richard Hadlee (once established) had a worst ever 10-match average of 25.12 (after his final Test) and he played until he was 39. Allan Donald's worst was 28.15 (also after his final Test). Malcolm Marshall's worst 10-match average was 25.43 (after his 75thTest).

Curtly Ambrose did exceed 30.00 once in 1995 (31.06) but it was a temporary blip and he was young enough to recover, whilst Courtney Walsh, who peaked in his late 30s, did not exceed 27.59 during his last 30 Tests.

For West Indians Ambrose, Marshall and Walsh it was a drop in strike-rate in advancing age that really spelled the end. All these great bowlers quit pretty quickly once their standards failed to match previous levels. McGrath's career average and strike-rate are 21.55 and 51.6 respectively. His current 10-match bowling average is 25.39 whilst his 10-match strike rate is 57.7.

Not a career-threatening discrepancy you would think. But 10 Tests ago was Lord's - his best performance of the last 18 months (9-82) - and after Brisbane his 10-match form calculations will lose that Test. Things could suddenly look very ugly. His bowling average over his last nine Tests is an alarming 29.71.

To show how quickly things have changed, his 2005 Lord's performance gave him the best 10-match strike-rate of his career (38.28) whilst his 10-match average (15.32) had only been bettered once before. The Edgbaston injury could not have been more ill-timed. Another worry is his current series form; in each of his last three Test series he has either struggled with his economy (3.28 v England), or his strike-rate (59.5 v WestIndies and 99.7 v South Africa).

This is the first time in 10 years that he has either exceeded 3.00 in economy or 57.0 in strike-rate for three successive series. If he hadn't taken time off to be with his sick wife he would have taken this poor form to South Africa last winter.

Instead he is taking this record into an Ashes series, ten months older, and having played very little first-class cricket in the meantime. If ever the Pigeon was there for the 'catching', this is the time.