South Africa, Australia look the strongest bowling units

In this article I will be looking at the recent form of the bowlers as they get into the World Cup.

Unlike the batting analysis, there is a clearly defined measure available in the bowlers analysis. The Bowling average encompasses both strike rate and bowling accuracy. Hence there is no need to create a composite index as I did for the batsmen analysis. We can use the bowling average as it is. The base figure is the career bowling average.

The other important point is Recent Form (RF). If a bowler has captured enough number of wickets in his career, say 100, the RF, whether great or awful, should not affect his career values greatly. On the other hand, for a bowler who has captured only 30 wickets in his career, the RF is likely to be more relevant. Hence I have adopted a varying weight method to determine the overall value, called Weighted Bowling Average (WBA). This ranges from 90%/10% for long-standing careers to 50%/50% for very short careers.

Let us move on to the Bowling values for Group A.

Group A: Top teams - Bowlers

Team	WBA	Bowler	Career Wkts	Career Average	RF Wkts	RF Average
Aus	21.35	MA Starc	61	21.28	18	21.56
Aus	25.45	MG Johnson	224	25.50	16	25.00
Aus	30.00	SPD Smith	27	32.44	5	19.20
Aus	30.00	JR Hazlewood	12	22.42	12	22.42
Aus	32.12	JP Faulkner	50	32.36	12	31.42
Aus	34.10	SR Watson	164	31.22	2	60.00
Aus	34.14	GJ Maxwell	28	38.04	11	27.64
Aus	40.00	PJ Cummins	14	35.50	7	39.86
Aus	40.93	XJ Doherty	55	39.35	6	45.67
...
Nzl	26.34	MJ McClenaghan	66	24.83	16	30.88
Nzl	28.74	KD Mills	240	27.02	9	44.22
Nzl	30.00	GD Elliott	27	26.04	7	22.57
Nzl	30.07	CJ Anderson	36	27.97	14	33.57
Nzl	30.54	TG Southee	116	30.97	19	26.68
Nzl	35.08	DL Vettori	290	32.31	6	60.00
Aus	40.00	AF Milne	14	42.64	13	34.78
Nzl	47.84	NL McCullum	55	47.78	8	48.00
...
Eng	28.40	ST Finn	78	28.41	16	28.38
Eng	29.20	JM Anderson	264	28.82	12	32.67
Eng	29.65	SCJ Broad	173	29.02	13	35.31
Eng	30.00	CJ Jordan	33	30.09	19	27.21
Eng	30.45	CR Woakes	42	32.76	20	26.60
Eng	31.14	JC Tredwell	59	27.81	10	41.10
...
Slk	21.64	BAW Mendis	148	21.18	20	25.80
Slk	27.34	SL Malinga	271	27.22	15	28.40
Slk	29.77	HMRKB Herath	71	31.07	15	25.87
Slk	30.00	RAS Lakmal	44	30.11	15	27.33
Slk	32.63	AD Mathews	91	34.79	7	24.00
Slk	35.81	KMDN Kulasekara	178	34.24	10	50.00
Slk	36.17	SMSM Senanayake	49	34.78	12	38.50
Slk	41.28	TM Dilshan	97	44.41	13	28.77

If the Australian batsmen did not make the other teams feel low, it is certain that the bowlers would. Two bowlers with WBA values of 25 and lower, and two potentially devastating bowlers. Also excellent support bowlers in Shane Watson and James Faulkner.

New Zealand bowling strength is no less than that of Australia. Two excellent bowlers and a good supporting cast. It is likely that Adam Milne could be the X-Factor. And that wily old fox, Daniel Vettori. They would be a handful in New Zealand. In Australia, a slight question mark.

England has the best bowling attack after South Africa. All the six bowlers have WBA values between 29 and 31. England could play all these six bowlers. Add to them five batsmen, that is a very good team. England could prove a handful for the two Asian teams expected to qualify from the other group.

Sri Lanka also has excellent bowlers but these numbers could be applicable in Asian conditions. However Lasith Malinga could win any match anywhere in the world. Nuwan Kulasekara's poor form must be the main worry for Sri Lanka. Tillakaratne Dilshan's recent form has been very good.

Group B: Top teams - Bowlers

Team	WBA	Bowler	Career Wkts	Career Average	RF Wkts	RF Average
Saf	21.84	Imran Tahir	55	20.24	15	26.67
Saf	24.49	DW Steyn	151	25.15	20	18.55
Saf	25.03	M Morkel	152	24.70	17	28.00
Saf	28.12	WD Parnell	64	29.25	18	24.72
Saf	30.00	VD Philander	35	22.26	21	20.24
Saf	39.21	JP Duminy	47	40.79	7	36.57
...
Ind	25.36	Mohammed Shami	70	26.74	20	21.20
Ind	32.08	R Ashwin	120	32.64	17	27.00
Ind	32.32	RA Jadeja	134	32.76	18	28.33
Ind	32.86	UT Yadav	49	36.45	16	26.88
Ind	38.03	B Kumar	45	37.16	8	39.50
Ind	45.92	SK Raina	31	49.00	5	40.80
...
Pak	30.75	Mohammad Irfan	57	29.93	15	33.20
Pak	31.69	Wahab Riaz	61	32.10	13	30.46
Pak	33.38	Shahid Afridi	393	33.97	15	28.07
...
Win	27.24	KAJ Roach	98	26.86	4	28.75
Win	29.75	JE Taylor	106	28.14	8	44.25
Win	31.90	NO Miller	40	36.53	10	24.20
Win	33.29	AD Russell	53	32.17	11	36.64
Win	33.54	JO Holder	37	30.22	12	39.08
Win	44.92	SJ Benn	32	35.88	3	60.00
Win	48.30	MN Samuels	82	45.38	2	60.00
Win	48.79	DJG Sammy	80	45.99	5	60.00

South Africa has been a force in batting as well as bowling. Their surprise package has been Imran Tahir who has outstanding career figures. On the Australian pitches he would get bounce and would be a handful. Steyn is Steyn: why gild the lily? Now comes the frightening trio: all at or below 30. Their overall numbers are well below 30: that should be sleep-less nights for some teams.

Mohammed Shami has been pretty good for India, but almost no one else. Their second best bowler has rarely looked good outside India. Then comes Ravindra Jadeja. Look at the figures of Bhuvaneshwar Kumar and Umesh Yadav. That is a real worrying bowling line-up for India. Maybe their Achilles' heel also.

Pakistan is even worse. They have only three rate-able bowlers. All are very good. Then come five bowlers who have less than 15 ODI wickets between them. What prompted Pakistan to select such an inexperienced bowling attack is a mystery? They could easily have selected Sohail Tanvir or Yasir Arafat. Like India, this could be their downfall.

West Indies have a very effective bowling attack. Kemar Roach, Jerome Taylor and Suliemann Benn are very good. Their problem is that Jason Holder does not deserve a place either as a batsman or bowler. He cannot be the fifth bower and bat at No. 8 or No. 9. It is likely that this group may send only one semi-finalist. And no price for guessing that team.

Other teams - Bowlers

Team	WBA	Bowler	Career Wkts	Career Average	RF Wkts	RF Average
Bng	26.68	Shakib Al Hasan	182	27.92	18	15.44
Bng	29.46	Mashrafe Mortaza	183	30.52	17	19.88
Bng	32.79	Rubel Hossain	69	32.36	13	34.08
Bng	41.90	Mahmudullah	67	42.15	7	41.14
...
Zim	34.50	TL Chatara	27	34.33	13	34.77
Zim	36.93	H Masakadza	36	37.89	3	35.33
Zim	39.56	T Panyangara	41	42.68	14	34.36
Zim	45.08	P Utseya	130	46.51	11	32.27
Zim	45.61	E Chigumbura	96	42.01	1	60.00
...
Ire	27.98	GH Dockrell	51	27.78	7	28.57
Ire	28.73	AR Cusack	56	23.89	4	43.25
Ire	29.02	KJ O'Brien	68	28.31	6	31.17
Ire	32.04	JF Mooney	41	30.37	6	34.83
Ire	45.76	PR Stirling	27	37.22	2	60.00
...
Afg	30.00	Hamid Hassan	46	18.93	13	18.00
Afg	34.20	Dawlat Zadran	32	32.31	12	37.33
Afg	36.66	Mohammad Nabi	42	36.24	11	37.36
Afg	37.06	Mirwais Ashraf	26	33.35	8	43.25
Afg	38.24	Samiullah Shenwari	41	30.34	5	51.40
Afg	44.76	Shapoor Zadran	29	35.62	3	60.00
...
Sco	30.00	I Wardlaw	30	24.20	15	21.13
Sco	30.00	JH Davey	28	18.96	13	16.23
Sco	33.38	RM Haq	57	31.72	8	38.38

Bangladesh and Ireland have very good bowling attacks. Zimbabwe has an attack which could do well at home on the slow tracks but could come a cropper on the faster wickets in the Antipodes. It is likely that only the Irish attack could trouble an experienced batting team. On their day these three teams are capable of causing an upset. Qualification to the quarter-finals is another thing, altogether. ICC's insistence that there will be a long curtain-raiser followed by a knockout event takes the sheen off the World Cup.