All pace and no spin? Selection dilemma follows Pakistan to Centurion

The road crunches under the rubber on the freeway that takes Pakistan from where they're staying in Melrose, a Johannesburg suburb, out to SuperSport Park in Centurion, about a half-hour's drive away.

The oppressive heat over the last fortnight in Johannesburg has made way for a fresh, crisp summer breeze, wispy clouds and blue skies taking turns, as if in a cosmic balancing act to maintain the perfect temperature. The roads are largely empty thanks to Christmas holidays, and the 40km between accommodation and cricket ground appear to shrink as the team bus races along.

The scene could not be written to portray further distance from Rawalpindi, where it's also cricket season, but in drastically different conditions. The sides stay much closer to the Rawalpindi Cricket Ground, and if it weren't for the side's security details clearing path to the venue the heavy traffic at all times of the year would make it a far more onerous exercise. The contrast continues once you get into each venue; the build up to Pakistan's last Test here was dominated by how many wedding-style heaters windbreakers, and rakes Pindi could fit in to produce a surface that suited their spinners; here at SuperSport Park, tarpaulin sheets mounted on stilts shaded a surface packed with moisture when the sun became too potent.

And yet, just four months earlier in Rawalpindi, Pakistan faced the same dilemma that currently holds them back from announcing their team for Boxing Day. In pursuit of quick, bouncy surfaces, perhaps not too dissimilar to the kind Centurion will almost certainly showcase this week, the grass was left on for the first Test against Bangladesh.

Believing they had prepared the surface they wanted, they made the fateful decision of playing no specialist spinner, hoping to exploit Bangladesh's perceived vulnerability against pace. It would go about as badly as possible. A wet outfield delayed the start with the sun drying the strip out. Bangladesh comfortably dealt with Pakistan's four-pronged seam attack, forcing them into bowling 50 overs of part-time spin. And then, with a draw looming, Bangladesh's twin spinners took seven wickets to skittle Pakistan on the fifth morning and romped to victory.

Pakistan made a half-hearted attempt to defend that decision, though just about everyone acknowledged it as a tactical misstep, one they do not want to repeat to close out the year. South African captain Temba Bavuma reeled off the starting eleven for South Africa before they had officially announced it; it did not include a spinner. He went on to say he had never seen "a flat Centurion".

After Saud Shakeel came in for the press conference as Pakistan trained on Christmas Eve, he appeared to agree with the characterisation of the surface. "I think we need a bit more time to finalise the side," he said. "As a Test group, this is our first official practice session. We were practising away from the main side because the one-day team was busy. The schedule was very tight and there's only two days of collective practice. Shan Masood will be able to say more tomorrow."

If South Africa had been playing a spinner, the decision may have been a lot simpler for Pakistan, but having been stung in the recent past going in with all-pace, they would rather not be fooled twice. As Shakeel pointed out, South Africa may only be going in with all pace because of the dubious fitness status of Keshav Maharaj, whom Bavuma said was "fit" but not necessarily match-fit. When Pakistan last played at the Centurion in 2018, Yasir Shah did line up for them, but bowled just 11.4 overs across innings; Maharaj, who also played, sent down a mere 14.

Noman Ali, the likeliest to feature if Pakistan do go in with a spinner, did bowl in the nets, though Shakeel said it was the seamers whose efforts indicated the kind of surface this would be.

"The pitch looks like it has a lot of moisture, but there's a couple of days left still before the start of the Test, so let's see how the pitch looks then," Shakeel said. "I think it's slightly more challenging for the batters because there's a bit of difference between the bounce when we come from the subcontinent. That's the major difference. We're working on it.

"As a Test group we've been here for about 10-12 days, and we've had some really good sessions at the Wanderers. Early on, it took a couple of days to get used to the bounce and seam movement. I've seen the games over the last couple of years and videos of how the pitch plays in South Africa. At times the seam movement also comes into play. The last year we saw 21 wickets [15] fall in a day. I think it's all about how you can adapt to these conditions and score runs here and put pressure on the bowlers."

By the time the Pakistan players were cooling down after training, the weather turned once more. The sun had beaten a hasty retreat, and dark clouds assembled over Centurion once more. The raised tarpaulin sheeting was swiftly taken down, and the covers enveloped the surface, with all its secrets securely wrapped up. It's unlikely to make Pakistan's decision - one that Rawalpindi demonstrated was so easy to get wrong - any easier.