Test series analysis - part 2

Last week I did an analysis of the Test match results by series. In view of the length of the article and the need to get and incorporate user responses, I decided to do this as a 2-part article. I am glad that I did this way. I have had excellent responses from the users and this has added a lot of value to the follow-up article. I feel that this is one follow-up article which was turned 180 degrees through the user responses. I have made significant improvements and have also changed the very basis for measuring the teams.

First, the summary of changes.

1. The basic method of determining the performance index has been changed based on excellent suggestions by and the extensive dialog I had with Raghav Behani. He himself added value to suggestions put up by Topa Singh. More details later.

2. Coming-from-behind series wins are recognized. Thanks to Dhaval/Anand for suggesting this. More details later.

3. There will be an adjustment in points secured in the series with 1/2 matches.

4. A 3-1 win will carry lesser points than 3-0, a 2-1 win will carry lesser points than 2-0 and so on.

Shankar had made a useful suggestion that all the away series which did not have neutral umpires should get higher weights. The suggestion is eminently valid as all teams, without exceptions, had some dubious members of the umpiring fraternity. However the whole thing is muddled with one neutral umpire scheme starting at various times in different countries. I am not able to work out a clear time-line.

Performance Index

For the Test match analysis, I had done a 0-1-2 points for wins. It came out quite well. For the Series analysis I did not like this over-simplified point allocation because of the widely varying number of Test matches. Then Raghav came back with a suggestion that I do this based on the maximum points available for each series. This would reduce the imbalance problem and provide proper weight. This idea of keeping the denominator at the maximum points did not strike me until Raghav pointed that out. This was a fantastic suggestion and my thanks to Raghav and Topa Singh for this. As Raghav mentions, this will let us do some important analytical studies of some of the famous rivalries like Ashes, India-Pakistan, India-Australia et al.

Of course it required some fine tuning. It is quite easy to win the one Test in a 1-0 series and get full 100% credit. To do that in a 6-Test series is very difficult. Why, it has never been done in history of Test match cricket. Hence some downward and upward adjustment of points is called for, as summarized below.

1-Test series: Multiply secured points by 0.75.
2-Test series: Multiply secured points by 0.875.
3-Test series: No change.
4-Test series: No change.
5-Test series: Multiply secured points by 1.125.
6-Test series: Multiply secured points by 1.25.

Sum for all series of {Series points x Above weight} Index % = ---------------------------------------------------- Sum for all series of {Maximum points}

Series win points

The following table is self-explanatory.

Max   <----------------------Series result---------------------->
Tests
1-0 2-1  3-2 : 2-0 3-1  4-2 : 3-0 4-1 : 4-0 5-1 : 5-0 : 6-0

1 2.0 - - - - - - - - - - - 2 3.0 - - 4.0 - - - - - - - - 3 4.0 4.5 - 5.0 - - 6.0 - - - - - 4 5.0 5.5 - 6.0 6.5 - 7.0 - 8.0 - - - 5 6.0 6.25 6.5 7.0 7.5 - 8.0 8.5 9.0 - 10.0 - 6 6.0 6.25 6.5 7.0 7.25 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 12.0(yet to occur)

Coming from behind

My definition of coming from behind is different to Cricinfo/Statsguru. They treat any series in which a team has gone behind as a coming-from-behind series. Even a series in which a team loses the first Test and then wins the next four. Mine is a stricter definition which is that I will only reward teams which come from behind by a margin of 2 Tests, to either win or draw series. The summary below will explain this. No team has ever gone 0-3 behind in a 6-Test series and gone on to draw the series.

SeriesId               From   Final

0-2 to win the series 3-2 (+20%) Home win: 67 1936 Aus vs Eng 0-2 to 3-2

0-1 to win the series 2-1 (+10%) Home win: 12 1888 Eng vs Aus 0-1 to 2-1 Home win: 302 1990 Win vs Eng 0-1 to 2-1 Home win: 350 1994 Saf vs Nzl 0-1 to 2-1 Home win: 398 1997 Slk vs Nzl 0-1 to 2-1 Home win: 399 1998 Eng vs Saf 0-1 to 2-1 Home win: 440 2001 Ind vs Aus 0-1 to 2-1 Home win: 550 2006 Saf vs Ind 0-1 to 2-1 Home win: 562 2007 Saf vs Win 0-1 to 2-1

0-1 to win the series 2-1 (+15%) Away win: 323 1992 Aus vs Win 1-0 to 1-2 Away win: 352 1995 Zim vs Pak 1-0 to 1-2 Away win: 358 1995 Pak vs Slk 1-0 to 1-2 Away win: 439 2001 Slk vs Eng 1-0 to 1-2 Away win: 565 2008 Nzl vs Eng 1-0 to 1-2

0-2 to draw the series 2-2 (+10%) Home draw: 45 1928 Saf vs Eng 0-2 to 2-2 Home draw: 111 1956 Saf vs Eng 0-2 to 2-2 The team strength adjustment continues to be done as explained in the last article. The points secured by the stronger team will be reduced and points secured by the weaker team increased proportionately. I will show the detailed graphs for "All Tests" and the eight periods based on the revised method of determining the Performance Index. The analysis is current upto and including the recently concluded India-Australia Test series.

I have also made significant changes to the graphs. To the extent possible the team colours are used. Tough task because of 3 shades of blue, 3 shades of green and 2 shades of red. The descriptive table at the right now contains both series played/won/drawn/lost information as also the number of 1/2/3/4/5/6-Test series played by the teams. A treasure-trove of information.

Australia leads the all-Tests table by a comfortable with an index value of 55.2%. When one sees that nearly half the series Australia have played are the longer 4/5/6-match series, their index figure assumes even greater value. West Indies have moved into the second position at the expense of England. Then come South Africa and Pakistan. Now there is a switch. Sri Lanka moves into sixth place, displacing India. One possible reason could be that Sri Lanka has never played even one 4/5/6-Test series. However it must be noted that they lose out on the 1/2-Test series. And India has been quite average, until 1990. They are carrying a lot of baggage.

The 2000s decade has Australia on top, way above South Africa. South Africa, England and India follow next. There can be very few questions on this positioning. Here also Sri Lanka edges out Pakistan. If their away form had been better they could have challenged India.

During the 1990s, Australia were on top, followed by South Africa and Pakistan. West Indies had not started their slide. Sri Lanka edges India out of the fifth place.

The 1980s was the time when Calypso was king, and how. They have the best ever decade of any team, winning 14 series and drawing 5, often away. Not one of the other teams even crossed 50%. Even series wins were rare for teams like India.

England, less troubled by Packer and WSC, led the 1970s decade, comfortably ahead of Australia and West Indies. India were also quite passable during this decade, no doubt due to Gavaskar and the spin quartet.

The swinging 60s were the time of the swinging giants from the equatorial islands. Led by Sobers, West Indies were on top. Australia and England were in the next two places. Pakistan were quite poor as they were in the decade in between Fazal and Imran Khan.

As expected, Australia, first led by Bradman and then by Hassett, were way out on top with 73.4%. England and West Indies also did well.

Bodyline notwithstanding, this was the era of Bradman and the Australians. Another 70+% index performance. England were the only other team which competed. the others just made the numbers. However I can assure the readers that wins against these weaklings have been seriously under-values.

This was an even period, with England taking the edge. They travelled well. South Africa were quite a good team towards the end of this period.

The following are the three top-ranked series in terms of points secured.

256 (1984)    West Indies defeated England 5-0 away. This was a clean sweep.
213 (1978-79) England defeated Australia 5-1 away. Australia were depleted 
but this being a 6-Test series and a huge away win gained lots of points.
296 (1989)    Australia defeated England 4-0 away.

Users can view/download the following tables. Some interested users could even think of importing these tables and deriving some statistical insights.

All-Tests and Period summary: Please click/right-click here.

Summary of all series - Chronological : Please click/right-click here.

Summary of all series - by Team : Please click/right-click here.

Caveat Lector: Since I use the published scorecards of Cricinfo, I have done the Series analysis by comparing the Series descriptions provided. There are some discrepancies over the years. So it is possible that a series might be split into two series. It is impossible to be 100% accurate. An example is the one Richard Mackey pointed out. For the first two Tests the description was "India in Australia, 2003-04" and for the last two Tests, it was "Border-Gavaskar Trophy, 2003-04". This has since been corrected.