WPL Eliminator scenarios: Three-way race with two matches to go

Gujarat Giants - Points 8, NRR -0.271

Remaining game: MI (Jan 30)

Gujarat Giants (GG) are second on the points table with eight points, but their playoff qualification isn't certain yet because of their low net run-rate. Their last match against Mumbai Indians (MI) will decide their future.

A win, by any margin, will take GG to the playoffs, but a loss will leave them hoping for UPW to win against Delhi Capitals (DC). If both MI and DC win their respective matches, those two teams go through to the Eliminator.

Mumbai Indians - Points 6, NRR 0.146

Remaining game: GG (Jan 30)

MI will play the Eliminator if they claim two points from their last game against GG, regardless of the margin. And they will fancy their chances, having run up a spotless 8-0 record against the opponents.

If they lose to GG, MI can still make it to the playoffs if UPW beat DC. MI do have the best NRR of the four teams in contention.

DC are the next best on NRR, but MI will stay ahead even if they lose by a considerable margin. Assuming DC lose by a run, MI's NRR will remain ahead of DC's even if they fall to GG by a margin of around 45 runs or are overtaken with 30 balls to spare.

MI are currently ahead of UPW by about 170 runs, which means UPW can't go ahead of MI unless they defeat DC by about 125 runs or with 90 balls in hand (assuming MI lose to GG on Friday by 45 runs or with 30 balls left).

Delhi Capitals - Points 6, NRR -0.164

Remaining game: UPW (Feb 1)

DC will face a knockout-like situation on Sunday against UPW. A win in that fixture will take them to the playoffs, irrespective of the margin, as their NRR is already higher than GG, who are on eight points.

A defeat, however, might not end their campaign. DC will then remain on six points, along with MI and UPW. So the team with the highest NRR will go through.

DC will stay ahead of UPW on NRR unless they lose by 65 or more runs (after chasing 180) or with 47 or more balls left (while defending 150). But MI's NRR is the trickier part for DC in this scenario. MI will stay ahead of DC until the margin is 45 runs or 30 balls.

DC should hope MI lose by a margin larger than the one stated above on Friday. The higher GG's win margin against MI, the better the cushion for DC against UPW on Sunday.

UP Warriorz - Points 4, NRR -1.146

Remaining games: DC (Feb 1)

UPW, currently at the bottom of the table, also have the worst NRR. That got even worse following a thumping defeat to RCB on Thursday. Their campaign will end on Friday if MI beat GG. But their expectation for Friday's game won't just be a win for GG; it will be a big-margin win.

They will enter Sunday's fixture needing to surpass DC's NRR by 65 or more runs (after scoring 180) or with 7.5 or more overs left (chasing 151). If GG beat MI by around 45 runs or with 30 balls left, then UPW's target will be a win by a margin of about 125 runs or with 15 overs left.

To understand the severity of the task UPW will face, the biggest win while chasing in WPL is with 77 balls in hand, and only one team won by a margin of 100-plus runs so far; a 143-run win for MI against GG in the first match of the opening season, in 2023.