Injury-hit NZ look to close out series

January 5, 2016
Start time 1100 local (2200 GMT)

Following two humbling defeats at the beginning of the series, would anyone have given Sri Lanka a chance of finishing the series level? With a bounce in their step since Nelson, and a number of injuries having eroded New Zealand, Sri Lanka might have a nearly-even shot at finishing 2-2. Having defeated only West Indies in the past 12 months, a drawn away-series will count as something of a moral victory.

When Brendon McCullum aggravated a long-standing back injury by skidding into the advertising hoardings, New Zealand had hoped the pain would pass, and that they would get their captain back before the end of the series. Coach Mike Hesson has now said McCullum's condition is more serious than initially thought. As such, he is unlikely to play in the deciding ODI. Kane Williamson is set to take the reins again.

Though Tim Southee and Doug Bracewell are both out of contention, but through Matt Henry, Adam Milne, Trent Boult and Mitchell McClenaghan, the hosts still possess a pace battery capable of exposing Sri Lanka. They may be hampered slightly by a Bay Oval surface that is known to be a little sluggish though, and the less-heralded spin-bowlers - Mitchell Santner and Ish Sodhi - may have roles to play.

(last five matches, most recent first)

 New Zealand: LWWLW

Sri Lanka: WLLWW

Tom Latham may not have played any matches in the series if the top order had all been fit, but injuries to Williamson, then McCullum have enabled his inclusion - probably for all five matches. He was steady in the Test series, but has so far been only middling in the ODIs - with a high-score of 42 in the third game, in Nelson. A good score in the final game will help signal to the selectors that he is indeed the man to replace McCullum at the top of the order, once McCullum retires at the end of the home season.

Once Sri Lanka's frustrating, unfulfilled talent, Chamara Kapugedera has had something of a rebirth in the past year, in which he played two excellent middle-order innings in Colombo T20 internationals. In Christchurch, he played two typically aggravating innings, in which he hit promising lovely early boundaries, but fell before he had made a significant contribution. He didn't have the chance to bat in either of the Nelson games, but he will know that the back-end of this tour is crucial for him. Strong performances here will likely see him through to Sri Lanka's World T20 squad.

New Zealand's major selection conundrum will be which seamers to play. Bracewell has left the squad and Boult has been brought in. McClenaghan may be the man to miss out.

New Zealand (probable): 1 Tom Latham, 2 Martin Guptill, 3 Kane Williamson (capt.), 4 Ross Taylor, 5 Henry Nicholls, 6 Mitchell Santner, 7 Luke Ronchi (wk), 8 Trent Boult, 9 Adam Milne, 10 Matt Henry, 11 Ish Sodhi

With Thisara Perera having delivered two decent overs in the rained-out match in Nelson, Sri Lanka may consider playing him in Mount Maunganui as well - though Nuwan Pradeep is the more aggressive bowling option. The top order is likely to stay in tact. Jeffrey Vandersay failed to contend with a slippery ball in the fourth game, but will probably retain his place.

Sri Lanka (probable): 1 Tillakaratne Dilshan, 2 Danushka Gunathilaka , 3 Lahiru Thirimanne, 4 Dinesh Chandimal (wk), 5 Angelo Mathews (capt.), 6 Milinda Siriwardana, 7 Chamara Kapugedara, 8 Nuwan Kulasekara, 9 Jeffrey Vandersay, 10 Dushmantha Chameera, 11 Nuwan Pradeep/Thisara Perera

The strip at Mount Maunganui has generally played slow and low, and has not been conducive to high scores in the past. The weather forecast suggests a full, uninterrupted match will be played. It is expected to be cloudy but dry, with the temperature rising to 21 degrees.

"Brendon's really struggling with his injury. He hasn't progressed as well as we would have thought, so he's probably unlikely to play tomorrow. Long-term he will get some further assessment. He's not playing the T20s, so he'll get a decent break before Pakistan arrive, and certainly before Australia arrive."