Best Of Strokes: Statistics say sides are even

Recently I took a look at the statistics of all Test matches played. The findings were quite interesting. For example, Australia, with a 42.9 per cent success rate in Test cricket, lead the rest of the world. Of the 606 Tests played to date, the Aussies have won 260.

The West Indies have won 138 and are second with a 38.12 per cent rate of victories from their 362 matches.

However, the Windies, despite a decade of decline, can boast of having the lowest percentage rate of losing, 25.97, as compared with Australia's 27.72 per cent. Statistically therefore, the West Indies are likely to lose only one in every four Tests.

Further, the West Indies' average runs scored in Tests, 332.33, compares favourably with Australia's 324.22. But again, we would ask the question: when was the last time the Windies scored more than 200 consistently in a Test series?

These statistics are promising indicators as to what can be the outcome of Jimmy Adams' tour Down Under, for statistics don't lie, but can be used effectively to represent the point you wish to make.

It is also statistically correct to say that apart from having a better rate of winning, the Aussies are less likely to draw a game, 29.04 per cent, as oppose to the West Indies' 35.63 per cent draws in Tests.

On average therefore, one would expect that one in every three games between the two countries would draw. This sounds encouraging, but given the toughness of this coming tour to Australia, the West Indies would be grateful for such an outcome.

My limited understanding of statistical analysis leads me to forecast the following: 1. Australia will win at least two matches; 2. West Indies will struggle to win two games (1.63 ratio in five Tests); 3. at least one game will be end in a draw.

With hardwork, incisive focus and fewer tactical moves on and off the field the West Indies may be able to convert their possible two wins into definite two victories, while maintaining a strong interest in ensuring as many draws as possible do materialise. According to the statistics then, the West Indies vs Australia series should be a closely contested one.

The Aussies on the other hand are better equipped and better positioned to take advantage of any statistical errors as well as any tactical errors As such, the Australians could easily walk away with a 4-1 victory.

I also wish to reflect on our rich history of international excellence started by our heroes of the past. Even after a decade of loitering on the corridors of cricketing destitution, the West Indies record still represents a respectable model of achievement at the international level.

From a statistical point of view, the West Indies team manager was on good ground when he spoke optimistically about his team's chances of winning the series Down Under.

Nevertheless, the reality of the situation may appear much different to many others who are prepared to compare and contrast the two sides.

The West Indies will have not only more inexperienced players on show, but a team of players not currently on top of their form, which could be the decisive difference on this crucial tour.