England odds-on for series triumph
Thankfully for England, the one-day series is out of the way and now they can concentrate on the truly important stuff, their three-Test series in New Zealand. The tourists are still odds-on to come out on top in the series, with the first Test beginning
Simon Cambers
13-Jan-2008
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Thankfully for England, the one-day series is out of the way and now they can concentrate on the truly important stuff, their three-Test series in New Zealand. The tourists are still odds-on to come out on top in the series, with the first Test beginning in Hamilton next Wednesday.
Bet365 make Michael Vaughan's side 4/6 (1.66) to win it, while New Zealand, as they have been for about a month now, are 3/1, with the draw the same price.
I've said it many times recently, but just to repeat, there is virtually no correlation between one-day success and Test performances. Ok, so Australia dominate both arenas, but they are far more vulnerable in the shorter format because it does not put quite so much importance on class.
If class wins out, then on paper, England should indeed win this series because they have by far the better side.
They will still be without the injured Andrew Flintoff - and they have a new wicket-keeper in Tim Ambrose after dropping Matt Prior, but they have enough experience, class and variety in their ranks to at least warrant favouritism.
The arrival of Vaughan and the likes of Matthew Hoggard, Steve Harmison and Monty Panesar - a whole bowling attack basically - will automatically lift the likes of Kevin Pietersen, who one feels has just been biding his time until the really important stuff.
New Zealand, by contrast, are a pretty average side, though they will be better on home soil and are still no pushovers.
Daniel Vettori captains the side and former skipper Stephen Fleming will be keen to end his Test career on a high, but they will sorely miss Shane Bond after his strange decision to end his international career in favour of the Indian Cricket League.
Bond, when fit, was a real handful and his pace troubled everyone, so England will be delighted not to have to worry about him.
New Zealand have won only 17 of their past 40 Tests at home - of their past 12, they have won just five - but against England, they have won three and lost just one of their five Tests on home soil.
England have become a pretty resilient side in the past few years but they have struggled away from home in the past couple of years, winning just two and losing nine of their 16 matches.
Five of those losses were last winter against Australia, of course, so perhaps not too much should be read into those stats.
A 2-0 win for England is the 3/1 favourite in the correct score outcomes, while it's only 11/2 that they complete a whitewash and 13/2 that it ends up 1-0.
If you fancy New Zealand to come out on top at the end of the series, it's 12/1 that they win it 1-0, 16/1 that they enjoy a 2/1 triumph and 40/1 that it is a whitewash in their favour.
The weather is always a factor in New Zealand and it's highly possible that one or more of the Tests could be affected by rain, so don't discount the drawn series.
A 1-1 tie is 15/4, while a 0-0 stalemate is 22/1.
Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.
Simon Cambers is Cricinfo's betting correspondent