South Africa make big strides towards victory

Australia 244 and 4 for 169 (Khawaja 58*, Rabada 3-49) need another 370 runs to beat South Africa 242 and 8 for 540 dec (Duminy 141, Elgar 127, Philander 73, de Kock 64)
Scorecard and ball-by-ball details

0%. Zero. No chance. None at all. That, according to Australia's Bureau of Meteorology, is the likelihood of rain in Perth on Monday. Coincidentally, it is also the chance of Australia winning the WACA Test and, thanks to that forecast, their hopes of escaping with a draw are not much higher. By stumps on day four, a South Africa victory was all but assured. It was a day of great South African entertainment, most notably fielding magic from Temba Bavuma and bowling brilliance from Kagiso Rabada.

Perhaps the least surprising element of the day was the decision of Faf du Plessis to delay his declaration, allow his lower order to provide some entertainment with late lusty blows, and grind Australia down further and further. For more than nine years - until the tour of India last November - South Africa had not lost a Test series away from home. At the heart of this remarkable feat was a certain conservatism, a determination first not to lose, and only then to consider winning.

So when du Plessis had his lower order bat on and on, their lead passing 400, then 450, then 500, and nearing 550, it was not a great shock. He also had to factor in the absence of his best and most experienced bowler Dale Steyn, who suffered a serious shoulder injury earlier in the match. With that in mind, you could understand why he would set Australia 539, requiring them not only to break the record for the highest successful Test chase, but to break it by more than 100 runs.

By stumps, they were 4 for 169, still 370 runs adrift of their target, with only the wicketkeeper and bowlers still to come. Usman Khawaja was well set on 58, but will need to re-establish his innings on the fifth morning. Mitchell Marsh, under pressure to justify his ongoing position in a Test top six, was on 15. The ball was jagging off cracks, jumping, staying low, spinning - doing all the things that make batting most difficult. Australia's task was monumental.

South Africa have dominated the past three days at the WACA, a most impressive accomplishment given the injury to their spearhead before that ascendancy really began. But the rest have displayed true Steyn-less steel, which has only added to the gloss of their performance. In Australia's second innings it was Rabada who stepped up, dismissing Shaun Marsh, Steven Smith and Adam Voges, to finish the day with 3 for 49. He also had Khawaja dropped at slip.

But first came Bavuma's breathtaking run-out of David Warner, the one man who, because of his recent form and his incredible record at the WACA, might have made Australia believe in a possible win had he stayed at the crease for a few hours. Warner had 35 at better than a run a ball when he pushed a Rabada delivery to cover and Bavuma, fielding at point, raced to the ball and then in one fluid action picked up, dived and threw down the stumps at the bowler's end.

Perhaps Bavuma is secretly a Rhodes scholar - a Jonty Rhodes scholar, that is - for there was more than a hint of that illustrious predecessor in this effort. Such was the surprise of the feat that Warner appeared not to be stretching to his full capacity to make his ground, perhaps believing nobody could possibly do what Bavuma did. Bavuma was even too quick for the umpire Aleem Dar, who had not had time to take an optimal side-on position.

It was a key moment, though to call it match-turning would be unfair to South Africa's outstanding work of the previous two-and-a-half days. Match-turning would have been if Warner had batted on until stumps and reached 150 at a run a ball. Bavuma's effort, brilliant though it was, simply ensured the match was not carried off in some unforeseen direction by Warner. South Africa had been on top, and Bavuma kept them there.

Then came the reward for Rabada, who, later in the same over had Shaun Marsh caught at second slip for 15. Australia had tumbled from 0 for 52 to 2 for 52 within one over, and briefly the score was 3 for 52 in the next over when Khawaja was given out caught behind off Keshav Maharaj first ball, only to be reprieved on review when the third umpire found the ball had brushed the flap of his pad rather than his bat as he played back to cut.

Still, the momentum was all with South Africa, and a 92-run stand between Khawaja and Smith did little to change that. Rabada was the man who broke that partnership, his persistent fourth-stump line and ability to nibble the ball around finally accounting for Smith, who drove outside off and tickled a catch behind for 34. Adam Voges followed in similar fashion in Rabada's next over.

Rabada should also have had Khawaja caught behind on 41, a thick edge flying between the wicketkeeper and first slip. Hashim Amla moved low to his right and grassed the chance, but Quinton de Kock could have made it comfortably had he chosen to move to his left. Instead, Khawaja was given a life and went on to bring up his half-century, off precisely 100 deliveries.

But then, a solitary fifty wasn't much good to Australia. South Africa had four batsmen who passed that milestone in their second innings, and two of those went on to post hundreds. The fourth day began with South Africa on 6 for 390 and Australia knew that with quick wickets, they might give themselves the slim chance of a gettable target. As it happened, South Africa batted on to add 150 to their total for the loss of only two wickets.

Vernon Philander was the last man out, bowled by Smith, who had not introduced himself into the attack until the 159th over of the innings, for 73. Keshav Maharaj had struck three sixes and provided some late entertainment with 41 not out from 34 balls. And earlier, de Kock had struck 64 before he was caught at cover off Mitchell Marsh. His partnership of 116 with Philander had been the crowning frustration for Australia.

Not that they helped themselves. Philander had been put down on 29 when he top-edged a hook off Mitchell Starc and at fine leg Josh Hazlewood ran around but parried the ball over for six, seemingly worried about stepping over the boundary. With just a little more awareness of his surroundings, he could have turned it into a moderately straightforward take. But it was symptomatic of Australia's fielding in the second innings, during which several chances went down.

There were also a couple of reprieves on review for de Kock, but Australia could not complain about those. In the end, du Plessis declared soon after lunch with South Africa on 8 for 540. Australia needed 539 to win. Only once in Test history has any team scored more than 500 in the fourth innings, and even that did not result in a win, for England's 654 for 5 in the infamous timeless Test of 1939 came in pursuit of 696.

The highest successful chase in Test history was the 418 scored by West Indies against Australia in Antigua in 2003, and Austraia's highest was 404 back in 1948. The statisticians can close their books for now, because by stumps on day four, all of those records remained very safe indeed.