Hope in hell

Lance Klusener and Glenn McGrath, apart from being the two potential match-winners of the most hyped contest in years, have something else in common: a passion for pig-shooting. Klusener has already expressed his desire to go hunting with McGrath when they get a spare moment. If South Africa beat Australia they might be stuffing a rarely-spotted variation of the species in their sacks: flying pigs.

South Africa have yet to win a series against Australia since rebounding from the wilderness nine years ago and their chances of doing so this time round, despite what the ICC Test Championship suggests, are slimmer than ever. It is well documented that South Africa have only to draw either three-Test series this summer to leapfrog Australia into top spot, but think of that as an aberration caused by the reluctance of the Australians - who have never relished stomping on tadpoles - to play Sri Lanka at home or Zimbabwe at all. The ICC table, as a form guide, is no guide.

More relevant is the presence of one man: Steve Waugh. He might break down once a series and he might resemble Captain Grumpy more than Allan Border ever did, but pick any 10 first-class cricketers in the world and chances are that Waugh would lead them to victory against any other combination. As it is, he has under his command an outstanding middle order (Ponting, Martyn, his brother and himself), a relentless pace attack (McGrath, Gillespie, Lee) and arguably the best keeper-batsman (Gilchrist) and legspinner (Warne) ever seen.

If Mark Taylor's man-management and tactical flair were crucial factors in Australia's squeakiest of 1-0 victories in 1997-98, then Waugh adds something else: a gambler's instinct to attack at all times, to risk defeat in pursuit of victory. Only three of Waugh's 31 Tests as captain have ended in draws, and on those occasions rain wiped out at least half the match. Assume, then, that South Africa will have to beat Australia twice to win the series. Only one team has managed that in recent times - and Laxmans and Harbhajans, you suspect, don't grow on trees in South Africa.

At best, four South Africans would walk into Australia's XI: Shaun Pollock and Jacques Kallis, and perhaps one or both of Gary Kirsten and Herschelle Gibbs. Of these, Kirsten is a naturally defensive player whom the Australians will aim to bottle up and force into error. Ditto for Kallis, seen as a batsman who plays with one eye on his career average and another on the match situation. Expect Glenn McGrath to identify Kallis as the danger man and hound him, just as he did with Michael Atherton in England and Brian Lara at home last summer. Daryll Cullinan remains South Africa's best attacking batsman but is unlikely even to feature because of the fear, as Kepler Wessels puts it, that "psychologically he is not equal to the task of facing the Aussies". He is a risk worth taking.

Risk, at least, is no longer the dirty word it used to be in Hansie Cronje's day. Under Pollock, South Africa even showed a dash of daredevilry in the way they swatted aside India and Zimbabwe, but this is a different challenge. Allan Donald, like Courtney Walsh last summer, will struggle to come back for second spells on the hard Australian wickets, while Makhaya Ntini and Nantie Hayward are still support bowlers: the Australians will aim to see off Pollock and prosper. Wrap up the series by the time they get to Sydney and it is possible they will bat Adam Gilchrist at No. 6 and unfurl the deepest bowling attack in history: McGrath, Lee, Gillespie and two legspinners, Warne and MacGill.

South Africa's hopes lie with dismantling Matthew Hayden and Justin Langer - technically suspect left-handers who will be tested by Pollock's niggardly off-stump line - and exposing Ricky Ponting who has the technique and temperament, but has yet to show the tenacity, to be a world-class No. 3. Their wild card is Lance Klusener, who has the unconventional aggression of a VVS Laxman or Chris Cairns - the two men who have unsettled the Aussies more than anyone. McGrath will find it hard to carry out a plan against him, but first Klusener must conquer his susceptibility to spin: in four Tests against Australia he has fallen five times to Warne, MacGill or Michael Bevan.

Klusener aside, the big danger for Australia is complacency. While Pollock's men have been building up for what they see as the ultimate challenge, Steve Waugh has seemed somewhat distracted of late - talking of playing on till he's 40, winning another World Cup, avenging that unscripted mishap in India. Slip up against South Africa and Waugh, instead of calling the shots, might find himself calling the scene from the commentary box in India in three years' time. And, boy, then he really would be grumpy.