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Scenarios: How can Bangladesh, Netherlands still qualify?

Nepal's close defeat to South Africa means there's only one Super Eight spot left in group D

S Rajesh
S Rajesh & Sampath Bandarupalli
11-Jun-2024 • Updated on 15-Jun-2024
Bangladesh got closer to the playoffs while it got just a bit tougher for Netherlands, Bangladesh vs Netherlands, T20 World Cup 2024, Kingstown, June 13, 2024

Bangladesh got closer to the playoffs while it got just a bit tougher for Netherlands  •  BCB

With five games to go in the league stage of the T20 World Cup 2024, only one spot for the Super Eight is still up for grabs, in Group D. Here is a look at the possibilities

How can Netherlands go past Bangladesh?

In group D, one Super Eight spot is still open after Nepal's heartbreaking loss to South Africa. With Nepal and Sri Lanka out of the reckoning, the battle is between Bangladesh and Netherlands. Bangladesh will seal their slot with a win, but if they lose to Nepal in Kingstown, and if Netherlands beat Sri Lanka (both are Sunday night games), then it will come down to net run rates. Bangladesh have the NRR advantage too - they are on 0.478, compared to -0.408 for Netherlands.
For Netherlands to qualify, the combined margins of those results will have to be at least 53 runs, if the teams batting first score 140. That means, if Bangladesh lose to Nepal by 38 runs - that's the first game of the night - Netherlands will have to beat Sri Lanka by at least 15 runs. A smaller margin in either game will allow Bangladesh to qualify.
Updated after Australia's win over Scotland, which assured England's qualification alongside group B toppers Australia.

S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats