'Just stay calm...' South Africa fight fatalism as greatest prize draws near

No team in world cricket, and arguably the whole of sport, has a more brutal relationship with the finishing line than South Africa.

It's cruel, but essential, to state this up front, much as Shukri Conrad, their impressively phlegmatic head coach, did when - with their place in the World Test Championship final up for grabs - they slipped to 19 for 3, chasing 148, against Pakistan in December.

"Do you want to be remembered as chokers?" was the gist of Conrad's message, as the cricket world - more engaged with this contest than could ever have been possible without the WTC's over-arching narrative - began to snipe from the shadows in the prescribed manner.

The players duly got their act together and hauled themselves over the line by two wickets, in what Conrad later coined "Camel classic", in reference to the nerve-settling smoke break he'd had with a handful of his players.

If that Pakistan run-chase was a moment to savour, it is nothing compared to the euphoria that South Africa now know is within their reach, after a day of batting dominance at Lord's that might have been beyond their most fevered hopes and desires. And yet, even now, they dare not make eye contact with the prospect, lest the whole edifice comes crashing down.

Speaking at the close of play on day three, for instance, Ashwell Prince, South Africa's batting coach, was asked about the magnitude of Temba Bavuma's performance - on one leg for most of his unbeaten 65, while carrying one of the most unconscionable burdens in world sport, as he extended his unbroken third-wicket stand with Aiden Markram to 143.

Prince started to respond with the sincerity that his captain's heroics deserved, but checked himself mid-flow: "Maybe I should answer that question after the game."

And so, there can - and will - be no counting of chickens as South Africa's day of destiny dawns at Lord's on Saturday. Least of all against an Australia that are not simply the defending WTC champions, but - as their proud record in world finals can attest - as habitually certain of their ability to win from any situation as South Africa tend to be consumed by fatalism.

"The messaging has been the same throughout," Prince said. "Make them believe that they can do it, and then just step out the way and allow them to go and do it.

"One of the things we said before the run-chase is: 'the game will finish when it finishes'," he said. "Whether that is tomorrow at lunchtime or whatever, the end of the match will take care of itself. For us, the most important thing is to remain in the moment. And from a batting point of view, that means play one ball at a time."

The calm within South Africa's dressing room, Prince added, was a testament to Conrad's unflustered approach to his role.

"Shukri must get a lot of credit for that," he said. "As soon as Aiden and Temba came up the stairs [after the third day], the first thing he said was, 'guys, do the same as you do every night'. Don't change a thing. Tomorrow morning, come and do the same warm-ups that you do every day. We obviously understand the magnitude of the situation and what's at stake, but just stay calm and take it in your stride."

Just stay calm… it's easier said than done, given what South Africa know of their fractured big-match psyche, but moreover what they know everyone else knows of it.

Not that the team will be allowing the thoughts to fly so far ahead of the process, but it's safe to assume that the ICC is already preparing its big-match montage to accompany South Africa's winning moment… just as was the case in the last World Cup final to be staged at Lord's, back in 2019.

On that occasion, the tape memorably froze in the split-second before Jos Buttler whipped off the bails for the title-sealing run-out… and the ghosts of England's many and miserable failures flooded into the picture. But, on this occasion, will it even be possible to exorcise so many all at once?

For there's been a horror story for every format and every generation since South Africa's readmission, up to and including their agonising loss to India - 30 runs needed from 30 balls - in their first T20 World Cup final appearance in Barbados last year.

For the current scenario, however, there's an even more on-the-nose shortcoming - arguably the founding father of the chokers tag. In Bridgetown once again, in South Africa's very first Test match back in the fold, Kepler Wessels and Peter Kirsten had carried their side to 122 for 2, chasing 201 for victory, against a West Indies pace attack led by Curtly Ambrose and Courtney Walsh.

A rest day intervened - and premature celebrations were had. But, upon the resumption, those 79 runs were never remotely challenged, as South Africa's remaining eight wickets were culled for just 25 runs. Against an attack featuring Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc and Nathan Lyon - and in light of their first-innings collapse of 5 for 12 - history is primed to repeat itself if there's even the slightest dropping of the guard.

"There's no desire to get ahead of ourselves," Daniel Vettori, Australia's assistant coach, said. "I think it's one wicket, that's the starting point. I don't think there'll be any thinking around how to get eight dismissals. It'll be simply about getting one and seeing what can happen from there."

Perhaps this fatalism really does all come from the outside now. Prince acknowledged there was a bit of low-key superstition at play while South Africa's crucial stand was growing - everyone staying seated then rushing to the bathroom at drinks, or when Bavuma's hamstring required treatment - but overall, he insisted the pursuit of positives was the defining aspect of their day. Even during the frustrating morning session, while Starc and Hazlewood were adding 58 for the tenth wicket.

"I think there were signs, starting yesterday evening, when you're sitting and watching the game, that all those type of things might be positive for us," Prince said. "There was a little bit of frustration, obviously, with the ball dropping short of the cordon all the time. But if you reverse that when we bat, it's a little sign that something might be in our favour. The stats suggest that day three might be the best for batting, and their Nos. 9, 10 and 11 were pretty comfortable against a pretty good bowling attack."

Whether the cricket can now take care of itself, only the fourth day's events can tell. And yet, South Africa already know they have given a good account of themselves, through the brilliance of Kagiso Rabada's nine wickets, and the indomitability of their senior batting pair. Regardless of the final act, they have arguably already shown that the ends justify the means, when it comes to their scrutinised route to this showpiece occasion.

"There was no talk about proving anybody wrong," Prince said. "Obviously there was a lot of talk about our route to the final, and who we played against, and people have their opinions about that. I can promise you now, we'd love to play against everybody more often, especially if there's some big-money series that we can also make some money [from].

"But the important thing, from Shukri's point of view, is to make the players aware of how good they are, and if you take them lightly, you might come short. I'm sure Australia wouldn't have approached the game in that manner. But perhaps the rest of the world, watching the final or predicting what's going to happen in the final, might have had that opinion."