CMJ: England can defy the odds (02 June 1997)

Monday 2 June 1997

England can defy the odds

Christopher Martin-Jenkins.

ENGLAND have their best chance for 10 years to win the Ashes this summer and I believe they will succeed.

Not by much; not because they are necessarily, man for man, a better side, but because they possess a stable batting order and two bowlers in Darren Gough and Robert Croft who, at their best and in the weather conditions which are forecast for the first three Tests, would cancel Glenn McGrath and Shane Warne. Most important of all, they at last look like playing as a team whose sum is greater than the parts.

There are negative factors too in the equation. The Australians have started their tour imperfectly and may find that pitch as well as weather conditions are less in their favour than they were when they thrashed the old country 4-0, 3-0, 4-1 and 3-1 in the last four series at home and away. Moreover, the long saga over Mark Taylor`s batting form has reached an uncomfortable climax in the first fortnight in England.

His early form would not have been so critical but for the decision of Australia`s tour-planners to settle for only three weeks, and two first-class matches, in which to prepare for the first of the six Tests. This was not why Graham Halbish was sacked as chief executive of the Australian Cricket Board and final decisions were discussed with the coach, Geoff Marsh; but they should have known that, given England`s unpre- dictable early-season climate, this was at best a gamble, at worst folly. In the event they have got more cricket, per- haps, than they deserved, but the real genesis of the problem was a tour of India followed by demanding series at home against the West Indies and away in South Africa. If the series ahead is as tough as England ought to be capable of making it, one or two of the Australian bowlers are almost bound to become injured.

Having been picked as tour captain, Taylor should lead his side at Edgbaston. He scored 839 in 11 Test innings in his first series in England in 1989, managed only two fifties in 1990-91 but averaged well over 40 and scored 428 and 471 respectively in 10 innings in the last two series. However, since last getting past 50 against Sri Lanka in Perth in December 1995, his scores against four different countries have been 7, 25, 21, 10, 27, 37, 43, 36, 27, 16, 7, 10, 11, 2, 1, 16, 8, 13, 38, 5.

He is due, it seems, either for a century or for a duck, and much will depend, no doubt, on which it is. If he is left out sooner or later, Steve Waugh would relish the chal- lenge, but he would not have history on his side. Before Taylor, Ian Chappell lost his first Test as captain against England and Greg Chappell, Graham Yallop, Kim Hughes and Allan Border all lost their first series.

TIME will tell how Taylor`s embarrassment has affected his team. Under his intuitive and decent-minded leadership Australia followed up their triumphant bearding of the West Indian lion in his den by beating them at home and South Africa away in successive series. Strictly on the formbook, therefore, England have no chance. Australia are rated the best team in the world, whichever computer analyses recent results, with England only sixth best of the nine countries who play Test cricket.

The 3-0 win in the Texaco Trophy was not much of a guide to the outcome of the Cornhill Tests, because England selected oneday specialists, but it continued the upward curve apparent since they, and their critics, underestimated the difficul- ties of beating Zimbabwe on their own pitches.

Only twice have there been signs of the old tendency of England sides to play as individuals rather than for their team and country since they began to turn the corner in Auckland in January. They failed in the end there but the experience of not winning a match New Zealand had effectively lost by lunch on the last day proved beneficial and at Christchurch a month later they won after being 118 runs behind on first innings.

The two exceptions to the unity of purpose which developed after the setbacks in Zimbabwe were the run-outs of John Crawley at Auckland and again at Lord`s in the third one-day international against Australia. On both occasions there seemed an element of stubbornness from both parties as Crawley went charging on while Graham Thorpe stuck to his crease with equal determination to preserve his wicket.

But they are high-class players and two of five England batsmen - Mike Atherton, Alec Stewart and Nasser Hussain are the others - who ought to be able to bat this summer without that feeling of insecurity which has worked against the side for so long: that vicious circle of failures demanding team changes, leading to instability and further failure.

Whether the bowling attack can achieve a similar secu- rity of tenure is less certain and here lies the key to the series. Already since Christchurch, where his batting proved invaluable while his bowling fell away, Dominic Cork has fallen by the wayside, forced to have a long rest by a strained mus- cle in his upper thigh, and if Adam Hollioake is the man to replace him at Edgbaston, it will be a batsman who bowls taking over from a bowler who bats.

At his best, and properly focused, Cork must be in the team, just like Darren Gough. Of the others, only the tigerish Croft is sure of his place. Phil Tufnell is being pushed for his by Ashley Giles and after Andrew Caddick, about whom the jury remain locked in debate, Devon Malcolm, Dean Headley, Alex Tudor, Martin McCague and a small army of left-arm over-the-wicket bowlers are eager to play.

If Australia are to retain the Ashes this summer, the likelihood is that it will have been a dry summer, allowing McGrath and Jason Gillespie to use their pace and the great leg-spinner, Shane Warne, to build still further on his wonderful record against England of 61 wickets in 11 Tests. In eight Tests since his recovery from the operation on his spinning finger, Warne has taken 33 wickets in eight Tests at 26 runs each.

That seems to answer fairly conclusively those who say that he is not the bowler he was. I saw him bowling Shivnarine Chanderpaul in Sydney last November with a ball which turned more than the one which famously beat Mike Gatting at Old Trafford in 1993. There has been a tendency to bowl rather more loose balls than he used to, and perhaps to restrict his variations too, but he remains the single most potent reason for Australia`s odds-on favouritism.

The three Ws - Warne and the Waugh brothers - with Mc- Grath, the speedy Gillespie, a reinstated Michael Slater and the talented and formidably dedicated Michael Bevan make up the greater part of what could prove a highly effective side. There are daily reminders in county cricket from the likes of Stuart Law and Darren Lehmann of how much strength in depth there is in Australia and it may only need one of Justin Langer, Ricky Ponting or Matthew Elliott to have a prolific summer to help the more established players to make a nonsense of En- glish optimism.

Certainly the home bowlers will need to be utterly disciplined if they are to undermine the Australian batting. Steve Waugh, for example, is vulnerable only to good-length bowling around his off stump. Totally focused and wonderfully consistent, he goes back to good-length balls even from spinners, but he scores easily off anything to the leg side of middle or too wide of his off stump. Much the same is true of his brother Mark. Only by playing to a plan against each of their opponents, and sticking to it, will England prevail.

THE weather would help them if it were moist during Test matches and the prediction from the long-range experts, Weather Action, is that there is a strong possibility of thundery rain in each of the first three Tests. The ball has to be moving about, off the seam and through the air, if Australia are to be bowled out twice sufficiently often.

Later in the season, perhaps, the dry atmosphere and correspondingly dry pitches which have been characteristic of recent seasons will set in again. They suited Australia in 1989 and 1993 and it is probably no coincidence that there was more rain about in the summers of 1977, 1981 and 1985 when teams led by Greg Chappell, Kim Hughes and Allan Border all left England without the Ashes.

Perhaps it is no coincidence either that Ian Botham, Bob Willis, David Gower and Graham Gooch were all available to England then too (Botham played in all three series, Willis in the first two, Gower and Gooch in the last two) but the weather played its part, make no mistake.

Witness also the success in 1981 of the English-style swing bowler, Terry Alderman, though eight years later, with 41 more wickets in six Tests, he showed what could also be done in a dry summer by a truly accurate swing bowler, especially one encouraged by his own team`s huge scoring.

For Michael Atherton the next three months present a chance for which he has been working for four tough years, that of leading a stable side who believe in themselves and are good enough to win. If they do, the winter tour to the West Indies need hold no fears. Atherton`s own performances with the bat remain very important to his team`s chances, but no longer necessarily does his personal success offer the only guarantee against humiliation.

For David Lloyd, as coach, the wait has been shorter, but he set out his stall after the 3-0 win in the Texaco Trophy:

"We all saw the accusations made by Mark Waugh about English cricketers before the start of the tour. He has played in county cricket and was identifying some of the areas that we know about ourselves. But within the England set-up we are striving to get a team who the country can identify with. I want committed players and players with passion. I want to get stability and confidence and to build a team. We are nothing like there at the moment but I believe that in the England set-up we have got everything in place."

Whether it has happened soon enough to beat Australia this summer we shall know by August, but it is certainly better than the 4-1 chance the bookmakers are quoting.

Source :: The Electronic Telegraph (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/)