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Feature

Matter of one over: How games have flipped after six decisive deliveries

A look back at the overs that provided the biggest fluctuations as per ESPNcricinfo's Forecaster in teams' fortunes

Yash Jha
25-Apr-2022
Rahul Tewatia hit sixes off the last two balls to help Gujarat Titans beat Punjab Kings  •  BCCI

Rahul Tewatia hit sixes off the last two balls to help Gujarat Titans beat Punjab Kings  •  BCCI

The first half of IPL 2022 wasn't short on drama, with several games seeing roller-coaster finishes. Here is a look back at the overs that provided the biggest fluctuations in the fortunes of these matches (through the lens of ESPNcricinfo Forecaster) as well as the teams concerned.
Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans, Brabourne Stadium, Mumbai: 20th over
Titans' win probability at the start of the over: 19.43%
Result at the end of the over: Titans won
Rahul Tewatia's miracle finish expectedly finds a place right at the top. The final over of their 190 chase began with Titans needing 19. A set Hardik Pandya at the crease along with David Miller meant they still had a fair chance of getting there.
But it only got worse before it got better: after a wide to start from Odean Smith, Pandya was run-out off the first legal ball of the over. With the equation down to 13 required off three balls, an avoidable overthrow from Smith brought Tewatia on strike. Down to 12 to get off the final two deliveries, the Forecaster gave Titans an 8.07% chance of winning, before Tewatia - not for the first time - did the job against Kings.
Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings: DY Patil Stadium, Mumbai: 20th over
Super Kings' win probability at the start of the over: 22.27%
Result at the end of the over: Super Kings won
Super Kings required 17 to win from the final over with four wickets in hand. Dwaine Pretorius had taken two key boundaries off Jasprit Bumrah's 19th over. MS Dhoni was batting on 12 off nine balls, but importantly, he boasted of a strike rate above 230 against Jaydev Unadkat, who was to bowl the final over. All this combined to give CSK a 22.27% chance of victory.
With Unadkat trapping Pretorius lbw first ball, and the incoming Dwayne Bravo taking a single, the Forecaster fell below 7% for the defending champions. Enter Dhoni with 16 to get off four balls. First a six and four took Super Kings' chances up to 20.47%; it then slipped to 15.69 with four needed off the final ball, but the ultimate finisher finished things off.
Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bangalore: DY Patil Stadium, Mumbai: 18th over
Kings' win probability at the start of the over: 22.17%
Kings' win probability at the end of the over: 97.87%
Royal Challengers posted 205, and in the chase, Kings were down to their last recognised pair of Shahrukh Khan and Odean Smith by the 15th over. It came down to 36 off the last three, one of which would be bowled by Royal Challengers death-overs' specialist and last season's Purple Cap winner Harshal Patel. However, it was barely a contest by the time he came on.
Smith took the attack to Mohammed Siraj in the 18th over, and the game turned on its head. The first three balls - 6, wide, 4, 6 - alone saw Kings' win probability spring from 22.17% to 90.44%. With Smith smashing another six off the last ball - and thus making it 25 off the over to leave 11 to win off the last two - it shot further up to nearly 98%, as Kings won with an over to spare.
Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings: DY Patil Stadium, Mumbai: 18th over
Titans' win probability at the start of the over: 4.20%
Titans' win probability at the end of the over: 56.21%
Maheesh Theekshana and Bravo's exceptional performances had made Super Kings favourites going into the last three overs. With Titans still 48 away and not much batting to follow, the scales were clearly tilted in favour of Super Kings.
That is when Rashid Khan, the stand-in captain for the day, took apart Chris Jordan with 6, 6, 4 and 6 off the first four balls of the 18th over. The over fetched 25 and flipped the game around. Titans now had a just-over 56% chance of going over the line, but there were yet more ebbs and flows - Bravo bowled a brilliant 19th, and Jordan began the final over with two dots to take the equation to 13 off four, with the Forecaster having Titans at 17.05% at this stage. But nerveless Miller sealed the chase with one ball remaining.
Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indians, Brabourne Stadium, Mumbai: 18th over
Capitals' win probability at the start of the over: 54.58%
Capitals' win probability at the end of the over: 99.04%
Capitals mounted an impressive recovery in their season-opener: they were 113 for 6 after 14 overs in reply to Mumbai's 177, and needed 56 to win from the last five overs with Lalit Yadav and Axar Patel in the middle. That is when the seventh-wicket pair took 28 runs from the next two overs, as Capitals' chances climbed from 13.40% to 54.58% with three overs left.
But Mumbai's half-chance was quashed in the 18th over, where both Lalit and Axar feasted on Daniel Sams. They combined to pick 24 off him, as Lalit hit 6 and 4, while Axar cracked two sixes, thus leaving Capitals with just four to get off 12 balls. Eventually, the job was done when Axar clipped Bumrah with ten balls left.
Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings: Brabourne Stadium, Mumbai: 19th over
Super Giants' win probability at the start of the over: 7.86%
Super Giants' win probability at the end of the over: 44.84%
Chasing 211, Super Giants were still 34 adrift of the target with just two overs to go. But by then, Super Kings had bowled out Bravo and Pretorius, and had a tricky decision to make: risk one of the spinners bowling with a wet ball due to the dew present, or try and find some other alternative. Still, given the steep asking rate, the Forecaster had Super Kings as 92.14% favourites.
The alternative they found was Shivam Dube, who hadn't bowled on the day yet.
His first ball saw Ayush Badoni get down on one knee and pummel one over square leg for six. Two consecutive wides gave further hope to Super Giants, and Evin Lewis belted 4, 4, 6 off the last three balls to make it a 25-run over. With only nine runs left to get it in the final over, Badoni hit a six after two further wides, as he and Lewis took them over the line with three balls to spare.