India gain an edge. England have the lead. What will happen next?
A gripping series comes to a close at The Oval, with everything still on the line
Andrew Miller
30-Jul-2025 • 21 hrs ago
Big picture: Nice and spicy
Who doesn't love a bit of rancour with their Test cricket? Admit it. You're every bit as hooked as the players themselves. Emotional over-investment has been the theme of the week, from England's graceless antics at the fag-end of the Manchester Test to Gautam Gambhir's foul-mouthed altercation with the Oval groundsman. The stakes, and the tempers, are on a knife-edge as the series finale looms, and no matter what else one might think of the behaviour on display, one thing is for sure: there will be no going through the motions for the coming five days. This contest has developed a context all of its own.
It is also shaping up as an extraordinary opportunity for India to turn the tables in a series that looked done and dusted when Chris Woakes reduced them to 0 for 2 in their second innings at Old Trafford. If it wasn't clear by the end of that game, it seems more obvious now; England's grumpy attitude towards India's milestone-hunting stemmed from their own frustration and exhaustion after laying everything on the line for 143 overs. They had gone into that final innings expecting to win the series with a game to spare, and maybe coast into this fifth Test with a chance to relax and experiment. Instead, they arrived at that controversial final hour with a very real sense of vulnerability in the air. Sure enough, here they are now, starting again from scratch just four days later, with a rejigged bowling attack and, as it turns out, without the one man whose efforts had hauled them into that winning position in the first place.
Ben Stokes clearly knew, even as he was imploring Ravindra Jadeja and Washington Sundar to shake his hand, that his shoulder injury was a very significant concern. His absence now transforms the agenda for both teams. At Old Trafford, England's captain reprised the peak of his all-round powers, with a superb first-innings five-for, followed by his first Test century for more than two years. Now, however, he's reprising a more familiar recent theme - the unavoidable fragility of a competitor whose body is struggling to keep up with his gut-busting desire.
He'll be back - of course he will - in good time for the Ashes, but another six-seven weeks of rehab is not how Stokes hoped to finish his most prolific series as a Test bowler. Even so, Brendon McCullum's concerns about his workload - as telegraphed from the Lord's balcony two Tests ago - suggests that the England dressing room always feared this could be the upshot.
Talking of the Ashes (as of course we must, it's English cricket's version of Godwin's Law) it is fascinating how different the feel is around this fifth Test, compared to the last time a drawn Test at Old Trafford was the prelude to a series decider at The Oval. In the 2023 Ashes, England were the team on the rampage - high on their own supply, as has been standard for the past three years - but as convinced of their direction of travel as they seem a little spooked by it right now.
Even though England lead the series, India's batters make up the top four run-scorers so far, with 11 centuries to England's seven. Notwithstanding the Bazball belief in bowling long and backing their batters to match any given innings in double time, there is bound to be a cumulative effect to those long and fruitless hours in the field on the psyche of the attack, let alone their stamina. The pitches, ever a talking point even before Lee Fortis got involved in the discussions, have been flat and unforgiving with only session's worth of exceptions, while Woakes' returns - 10 wickets at 52.80, compared to his home average of 21.59 from 34 previous Tests - have epitomised the underlying toothlessness of England's attack.
India aren't without concerns on that front too, of course. They need 20 wickets to secure a share of this series, but their own attack was utterly devoid of ideas in England's only innings at Old Trafford, where Joe Root and Stokes controlled the agenda after a flying start from Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley. Jasprit Bumrah will not play, which puts the onus squarely on the returning Akash Deep and Mohammad Siraj - who claimed 17 wickets between them in that memorable win at Edgbaston.
Glib though it is to say it, however, desire may be the deciding factor in this fascinating series. To claim that the series is descending into foul-tempered anarchy would be doing a disservice to the genuine respect that emerged after England's agonisingly tight victory at Lord's earlier this month. But, there's also no doubt - to channel each side's inner Kevin Keegan - that each would "love it" if they beat the other this week. It may require the straining of several sinews for either side to get over that finishing line, especially if the forecast for the back-end of the Test is correct. But unfortunately for England, their key piece of sinew has already been sidelined by prior exertion. It's up for grabs now.
Form guide
England: DWLWW (last five Tests, most recent first)
India: DLWLL
India: DLWLL
In the spotlight: Jacob Bethell and Washington Sundar
For most of the summer - especially after Ollie Pope quietened his doubters with a century in the first Test - it looked as though Jacob Bethell would remain on the outside looking in, his reputation growing in absentia given the instant impact he had made as an emergency No. 3 in New Zealand last year. Now, not unlike the last man in this set-up who was forced to wait his turn, Harry Brook in 2022, Bethell's chance has come in the final Test of the summer, and the rewards for seizing it could be immense. For it's not just his precocious batting that will come into the spotlight this week. Bethell's potential as a spin option will be explored in the absence of Shoaib Bashir and Liam Dawson, which - in certain circumstances during the Ashes - might offer him another route into England's XI. For the time being, though, his primary task will be to hit the ground running in a series that has been dominated by the bat.
Washington Sundar's stock has risen immensely in the course of this campaign. His inclusion for the second Test at Edgbaston looked at first like a conservative choice, with the connoisseur's preference being the more dramatic wristspin option of Kuldeep Yadav. But then Washington chipped in with a vital 42 from No. 8 that set up a winning total, before his four-wicket onslaught at Lord's brought his primary suit back into focus. Now he's a Test centurion, having been a focus of England's ire in those fraught final overs at Old Trafford. And, in the absence of Rishabh Pant, that resolve could be vital to India's hopes of squaring the series, with Pant's No. 5 berth up for grabs once more.
Team news: Stokes ruled out with grade three tear
"Pain is just an emotion," Stokes said after the fourth Test. Grade Three tears of the shoulder, on the other hand, are a more significant problem. The captain's absence from this contest is a shattering blow to England's hopes of closing out the campaign, not least because he has been their best and most penetrative bowler all summer long. Bethell slots in for his first Test of the summer, and given that he and Root form a passable spin partnership, Dawson is the fall guy. His absence also reflects England's need to shore up their seam attack in Stokes' absence. Brydon Carse and Jofra Archer were off-colour at Old Trafford; Jamie Overton, Gus Atkinson and Josh Tongue complete a significantly changed line-up.
England: 1 Zak Crawley, 2 Ben Duckett, 3 Ollie Pope (capt), 4 Joe Root, 5 Harry Brook, 6 Jacob Bethell, 7 Jamie Smith (wk), 8 Chris Woakes, 9 Gus Atkinson, 10 Jamie Overton, 11 Josh Tongue
Bumrah is set to be rested by India's medical team after a tough outing in Manchester, where he bowled 33 overs and was taken for more than 100 runs in an innings for the first time. Akash Deep, unavailable last week, is the likely candidate to replace him. Anshul Kamboj, uninspiring on debut, is expected to make way too - potentially for Prasidh Krishna, who was expensive at the start of the series - while Arshdeep Singh, who split his webbing between the third and fourth Tests, is fit again too. A decision needs to be taken on Shardul Thakur, who was neither one thing nor the other at Old Trafford. With India facing a must-win game, is it time at last to unleash the wiles of Kuldeep? Dhruv Jurel, a familiar face after his substitute keeping in the last two Tests, is this time officially included, with Pant ruled out with that broken foot.
India (probable): 1 Yashasvi Jaiswal, 2 KL Rahul, 3 B Sai Sudharsan, 4 Shubman Gill (capt), 5 Washington Sundar, 6 Ravindra Jadeja, 7 Dhruv Jurel (wk), 8 Shardul Thakur/Kuldeep Yadav, 9 Akash Deep, 10 Prasidh Krishna/Arshdeep Singh, 11 Mohammed Siraj
Pitch and conditions: Grass left on the pitch
Who dares to get close enough to the pitch to analyse it fully, in light of the furore that kicked off on Monday? The surface on match eve still had a green tinge, although plenty can change in 24 hours. The weather, for the most part, looks warm, although showers are forecast for Thursday afternoon, while the back end of the match could see further downpours.
Stats and trivia: Seamers' paradise
- India have won twice in 15 previous visits to The Oval, in 1971 and 2021, which was also their most recent match against England at the venue. They lost their last visit there, against Australia in the World Test Championship final in 2023.
- With 722 runs in the series so far, including four centuries, and a maximum of two innings to come, Shubman Gill has a range of batting records in his sights. Only one man, Clyde Walcott in 1955, has previously made five hundreds in a single series, while no player has passed 800 in a series since Mark Taylor in the 1989 Ashes. Don Bradman did it three times: his all-time record of 974 runs in the 1930 Ashes remains 252 runs away, which is less than Gill's highest score of the series so far.
- Pope has won three and lost one of his four previous Tests as captain, against Sri Lanka and Pakistan between August and October last year. In a microcosm of his career, he has a top-score of 154, on this ground against Sri Lanka, and 37 runs in six remaining innings.
- Since the start of 2023, there have been 22 first-class matches at The Oval, in which seamers have taken 617 wickets and spinners have taken 79. This season alone, seamers have accounted for 131 wickets out of 150.
- For 21 consecutive first-class matches, dating back to April 2023, teams winning the toss at The Oval have chosen to bowl first - including India against Australia in the WTC final.
Quotes
"Decisions like this are not straightforward. You have to let the emotion settle before you make a clear, firm decision. I did turn up to training to see if I could go as a batter, but it wouldn't be a sensible call to make, considering how much worse it could be by going out there."
Ben Stokes explains why he's not risking his fitness for this match
Ben Stokes explains why he's not risking his fitness for this match
"We have played four matches already in this series, and nobody had stopped us from watching the pitch. All of us have played so much cricket, [and] we have gone to the pitches so many times - including the coaches and captain. I don't know what the fuss was about."
Shubman Gill, India's captain, is bemused by the row with the Oval groundsman
Shubman Gill, India's captain, is bemused by the row with the Oval groundsman
Andrew Miller is UK editor of ESPNcricinfo. @miller_cricket