Judgment days

Australia's three selectors will debate the first-Test squad in Melbourne over two days in one of the most difficult choices of their tenures. Only the No. 6 and No. 10 positions are negotiable, but rarely have so many candidates had serious claims on the spots that will be revealed on Thursday.

Five fast bowlers have been elbowing each other over the past two months in desperate bids to join McGrath, Lee and Warne at the Gabba on November 23; three of Australia's essential one-day players are pushing for the final middle-order berth. The combinations and permutations are so complex it would be easier to understand why the country's crowds insist on racially abusing visiting teams. It hasn't been the Australian way in recent years, but don't be surprised if Andrew Hilditch, the chairman of selectors, announces a 13-man squad at the MCG on Thursday afternoon. It would be a sensible and anti-climactic move.

Hilditch's panel, which is currently a man short following the resignation of Allan Border last month, will deal with many questions when it first meets at Cricket Australia's headquarters today. A crucial early decision will be whether to stick to the conservative approach that stamped the final years of Trevor Hohns' reign. A legacy of the highly successful Hohns era, which ended in April, is the average age of the nine certainties is 34 and Brett Lee is the youngest at 30. This factor will force discussions over youth versus experience and the benefit of short-term Ashes goals compared to a longer outlook as the squad starts to dismantle after the World Cup. These two issues form part of a range of important topics.

Does Glenn McGrath need back-up after not playing a Test since January? Is Mitchell Johnson's pace more important than Nathan Bracken's swing? Does the side require left-arm variety or right-arm control? Could Warne operate in tandem with Stuart MacGill for the first time in Brisbane? Would dumping Michael Clarke twice in a year cause terminal damage? Is Shane Watson good enough to bat in the middle order and bowl 15 decent overs an innings?

Of the leading fast men only Jason Gillespie, who was Man of the Series against Bangladesh, can be discounted easily. He missed leading the Prime Minister's XI due to a jarred shoulder and may come under closer inspection if Australia falter in the early stages of the series. Shaun Tait's unrefined, eye-opening speed shook England last Friday when he picked up 3 for 21, but the selectors' concerns over his throwing difficulties are a roadblock, despite 13 wickets in South Australia's first three Pura Cup games.

Ricky Ponting had Stuart Clark in his XI three months ago and since the bowler missed the Champions Trophy with a thigh injury he has moved from doubtful to almost certain. Clark's debut series against South Africa in March is a more important memory than Gillespie's work against Bangladesh, and he breezed through South Australia with 6 for 39 last week before backing up as the most impressive New South Wales bowler against England.

However, the prospects of Johnson, who starred in Australia's past two one-day tournaments, and Bracken, who was the side's leading wicket-taker with McGrath at the Champions Trophy, are also strong and the call will depend on how adventurous Hilditch, Merv Hughes and David Boon feel. All three bowlers are most suited to the bounce and seam offerings of the green-tinged Gabba and it is where the selectors will need a shoehorn.

While the unconventional selection of the under-bowled Stuart MacGill could end the trio's hopes, the decision is more likely to rely on who is batting at No. 6. Clarke, Watson and Andrew Symonds have been in a three-way race once Damien Martyn re-confirmed his international credentials last month. Symonds is the outsider while Watson seems to be ahead after the Champions Trophy. Both Clarke and Watson could have been given the opening role in India, but Watson collected two half-centuries and Clarke received late-over scraps.

If the allrounder Watson appears in only his fourth and most important Test Australia will be more willing to experiment with the variety of a left-armer and Johnson is well-placed to make a home-ground debut. Should Clarke, a specialist batsman, retain his Bangladesh appointment a more traditional right-arm line-up of McGrath, Lee and Clark would be the safer option. Keeping Clarke in a 13-man squad would give Australia flexibility in the lead-up to the game.

With a larger squad the final decisions can be delayed until the middle of next week when conditions, fitness and net form have been gauged. It is not Australia's usual method but they are the ones who have to win back the Ashes and the selectors must dissect every scenario.

Australia squad (possible) Matthew Hayden, Justin Langer, Ricky Ponting, Damien Martyn, Michael Hussey, Michael Clarke, Shane Watson, Adam Gilchrist, Shane Warne, Brett Lee, Stuart Clark, Glenn McGrath, Mitchell Johnson.