When batting first means finishing second best

The P in IPL has often been used creatively outside the BCCI's circles. It has variously been the Indian Party League, the Indian Parivaar (family, in reference to the dodgy ownership structures) League, the Indian Pensioners League (in reference to the number of players retiring from international cricket to play in the IPL), the Indian Pretenders League (while IPL teams kept struggling in the Champions League T20). In the earlier parts of this season, it was the Indian Paani (water) League because of PILs against its massive use of water when the rest of the country is struggling for it.

On the field, though, it has been the Indian Predictable League this year. It's not so much about the sides chasing winning 14 out of 15 games (as of April 21) as it is the about predictability with which it is happening. You are batting first, you get off to a decent start, you lose. You get off to a good start, you get pulled back in the middle overs, and you lose. There are no inexplicable collapses from comfortable chasing positions, no meltdowns for bowlers bowling first, almost as if logic is working. That, in IPL, is not good news; the tournament relies on these inexplicable twists.

The comparison between numbers from over the years makes this predictability slightly confounding, in that the numbers for sides batting first haven't changed much. Over the first 15 games, the Powerplay strike rates of sides batting first have only gone up progressively in the last four seasons. Compared to last season, there has been a big slowdown in strike rates after six overs, though. The strike rate between the seventh and 15th overs has gone down from 130.62 to 118.15. The corresponding numbers for the last five overs are 177.95 and 150.92. Still, these numbers are quite similar to 2012 and 2013. In those years, only seven of the first 15 games went to the teams chasing.

The big difference then is the certainty and urgency with which teams have been chasing. In the Powerplay while chasing, teams have struck at 139.07, five units more than the previous highest and nine more than the last season. Not only that, they have also been able to do so with wickets in hand: only 10 wickets have fallen in 90 chasing Powerplay overs, and only three of those have come in eight chases of less than 150.

Delhi Daredevils' Karun Nair was part of one such chase, that of 192 against Royal Challengers Bangalore. He believes teams have moved on to the next level with their chasing game. "I think you can put these numbers down to teams being smarter over the years," Nair says. "They have come to a certain strategy that they know how to chase, when to go after which bowler. I think the teams are chasing really well. In the past years, chasing has been a problem for every team. Every team has really worked on that. Probably that's why teams are winning chasing."

Dew is obviously a factor in evening games. That, and this confidence of batsmen in the chase, has left those batting first under pressure. Of the four times that teams have chosen to bat after - despite, some might say - winning the toss, three of them were calls made by old-school batsmen - MS Dhoni twice and Rohit Sharma once. They prefer to get a few balls in before they start hitting. They still believe chasing is more pressure. Kieron Pollard, who will be Nair's opponent on Saturday, believes so too.

"[For] me, personally, batsmen chasing is a lot difficult," Pollard says. "Yes, you know what you have to chase, but you still have to go out there and get it. You lose a couple of wickets, you are on the back foot, you have to change your game. At the end of the day, it is a matter of doing what you need to do, and doing it well. If you chase, chase well; if you are batting first, bat properly.

"If teams are taking the pressure [well], it goes to show the confidence each and every team - doesn't matter their position at the start, they back themselves to get it. I guess, with the dew around as well, it is something that plays a role as well in captains' wanting to bat second. If that's a trend, we will try to continue that, but there are situations when you have to bat first. If you bat well batting first and come out and bowl properly, there is no reason you can't win."

Fourteen out of 15 cannot be a freak coincidence, though. There is more at play. The World Cup of Twenty20 cricket has just ended. It usually brings new trends. Especially on Indian pitches, the slowdowns after the Powerplay have been massive. That much was evident in the World T20 too. It is just that a lot rode on those matches in the World T20, and the sides batting second felt that pressure. Now they have 14 matches each. They can play with freedom. With that freedom in hand and the target certain, they are at an advantage. Nor are there any mystery spinners or awkward actions left that invariably changed games for captains defending with just one good over.

In the World T20 final, Samuel Badree bowled four overs for 16 runs and two wickets at the top. In the game against Australia in Mohali, Ravindra Jadeja pulled them back after a rollicking start with just 20 runs in three overs. In the end, though, plaudits belonged to Carlos Brathwaite and Virat Kohli, for chasing under pressure. An observer suggested and found me reluctantly agreeing that what happened in the first innings didn't matter, that the real match-winning contributions came with the match on the line.

With the World T20 over, that might be changing. The match is now on the line in the first innings. The onus is on batsmen to judge quickly what a good score is and get it. Nair says the pressure might have got to batsmen batting first, and they have been losing wickets while going for those extra runs. Nair's side has lost one match batting first, and he believes in keeping wickets in hand. Pollard speaks about a better process in judging what a par score is: the openers are responsible for assessing the conditions and relaying that information to the batsmen coming in.

In a way, you go out there, bat normally for a few overs, decide what a good score is in those conditions, and then pretend you are chasing that score. Nair says it hasn't yet reached that stage where teams batting first bat as if chasing - "it's easy to say, but not that easy to do it out there" - but the batsmen batting first need to find a way to put this pressure back on to the batsmen chasing.