Feature

T20 World Cup 2022: What India's loss to South Africa means for Pakistan's chances

India's chances also take a hit. They now need to win their last two games to be sure of a semi-final spot

S Rajesh
S Rajesh
30-Oct-2022
David Miller took South Africa across the line in a low-scoring thriller against India  •  Getty Images

David Miller took South Africa across the line in a low-scoring thriller against India  •  Getty Images

South Africa's five-wicket win against India takes them a lot closer to a semi-final spot, while at the same time jeopardising the qualifying chances of Pakistan. Here's a look at how the teams are shaping up with six matches to go in Group 2.
South Africa
Played: 3, Points: 5, NRR: 2.772, Rem matches: vs Pak, Neth
With five points in the kitty, a superb net run rate (NRR) of 2.772, and a game against Netherlands still to come, South Africa are in an excellent position to seal a semi-final slot. If they win against Netherlands and get up to seven points, they are almost certainly through. If Bangladesh and Zimbabwe win their remaining games, they will finish on eight and seven points respectively, but even then South Africa's NRR should be enough for qualification. If India win one of their two remaining games, against Zimbabwe and Bangladesh, then at least one of those teams will not be a threat to South Africa if they get to seven.
India
Played: 3, Points: 4, NRR: 0.844, Rem matches: vs Ban, Zim
India's loss to South Africa means they need to win their last two games to be sure of qualification. If they beat Bangladesh but lose to Zimbabwe, both Zimbabwe and South Africa could finish on seven or more points. If India beat Zimbabwe but lose to Bangladesh, then Bangladesh and South Africa could qualify ahead of India. Currently, there is a 70% chance of showers in Adelaide on Wednesday, when India take on Bangladesh, so they will have one eye on the weather as well.
Bangladesh
Played: 3, Points: 4, NRR: -1.533, Rem matches: vs Ind, Pak
Bangladesh are level with India, but their NRR is much poorer, which could cost them if it comes down to NRR. Their last two matches are against the two Asian giants, and they will need to win at least one of them to stay in contention. If they win both and finish on eight, they will qualify regardless of other results.
Zimbabwe
Played: 3, Points: 3, NRR: -0.050, Rem matches: vs Neth, Ind
Zimbabwe need to win both their remaining matches to stay in the hunt. If they beat Netherlands and lose to India, they will end up with only five points, which will almost certainly not be enough.
Pakistan
Played: 3, Points: 2, NRR: 0.765, Rem matches: vs SA, Ban
Pakistan's chances have been hurt by South Africa's win against India. Pakistan can finish on a maximum of six points, while South Africa will go up to seven if they beat Netherlands. However, if India lose one of their two remaining games and finish on six, then it could yet be an NRR battle between the arch-rivals.
If, for instance, Pakistan win their last two, Bangladesh beat India, who in turn beat Zimbabwe, then the three Asian teams could all finish on six points, fighting for one spot (if South Africa beat Netherlands and finish on seven). Then, Pakistan's relatively healthy NRR of 0.765 could be an asset, as India's could slip if they lose a game.
Netherlands
Played: 3, Points: 0, NRR: -1.948, Rem matches: vs Zim, SA
With zero points from three games, Netherlands are out of the tournament.

S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats