Will England's tail wag or fall limp?

Events of the first Test have caused a reaction in the spreads markets, and England's Tails of the Unexpected, now look a very interesting bet indeed.

This, as any regular reader will know, is my favourite market from Sporting Index because it keeps you involved, rewarding one point per run scored by numbers 8, 9, 10 and 11 throughout the whole series.

England's tail managed just 43 in the first Test debacle in Jamaica, a total that if extrapolated over the remaining three matchs, would make up as 172. Sporting Index's current quote, though, is 260-275.

So the question is, have Sporting overestimated just how bad England are, or are they working on the premise that they are poor, and that therefore, they will have to beat twice in each match, giving them six innings to up their total.

I am not so sure that England are that awful, despite what happened at Sabina Park, and you also have to bear in mind that there could be changes to England's line-up. If not, only Stuart Broad is a decent batsman, Ryan Sidebottom can hack a few runs here and there and Steve Harmison and Monty Panesar occasionally make a few.

But they are hardly a fearsome foursome and I have a feeling that Sporting may have set the quote too high. On the one hand, I don't see any of them - bar Broad - making any runs, and on the other, if England hit form and make a big score (it could happen) then they may only bat once in one of the matches.

My advice will rest a little on exactly what team England put out for the second match in Antigua, so let's wait until we see the 12 (we ought to be able to figure out the 11) and go from there.

If you're brave, though, the advice is to go for a small sell at 260 and take advantage of your courageousness, because the price will change if England pick better batting tailenders.