Luck Index - The Kane Williamson error that proved costly

Kane Williamson has had a wretched IPL with the bat so far - his strike rate of 96.1 is the lowest among batters who have faced at least 100 balls this season - but tonight his usually reliable catching let him down too, when he dropped a regulation chance from Rovman Powell in the 15th over of Delhi Capitals' innings.

Capitals had scored 135 for 3 after 14 overs, but Powell hadn't yet fully got into his stride: he had 18 off 14 at that point. After that chance, though, he went into overdrive, slamming 49 off 20 balls. Five of his six sixes, and all three of his fours, came after that let-off.

According to ESPNcricinfo's Luck Index, that dropped chance cost Sunrisers Hyderabad 14 runs, which means had the catch been taken, Capitals would have finished on 193, not 207. This calculation is based on a complex algorithm, which assumes that if Powell were dismissed off that delivery, the 20 extra balls he faced would have gone to the batters who didn't bat in the innings. In those 20 deliveries, according to the algorithm, Capitals would have scored 35 and not 49.

In the end, the margin of defeat was more than 14, but it can be argued that Sunrisers might not have been so desperate for the big hits had the target been 14 runs fewer.

Capitals dropped a catch too, when Lalit Yadav missed a tough one at long-off from Nicholas Pooran in the 18th over, but in the context of the match that chance didn't cost them much: Pooran hit a six off the next ball and was then dismissed, caught at long-on.