Brilliant in orange - what can Titans do to get the best out of Rashid Khan?

Since he burst on to the scene in 2017, Rashid Khan has arguably been the best spinner in the IPL. Batters have struggled to pick up his variations because of his quick arm action. And Rashid's control over his lengths have made it even more difficult to score off him in the T20 format. Oppositions have preferred to play out his overs and attack his team-mates. There aren't many better signs of respect than that for a cricketer. Lately, however, it looks like he is losing a little bit of his touch.

Two days ago, Rashid went for 40 runs in four overs against Punjab Kings. A week before that, he gave away 49 in four overs to Chennai Super Kings. There is, of course, a mitigating factor. He had back surgery recently and this IPL season is the first real test of how his body has been holding up since then. But some of these trends pre-date his injury.

Take his economy rate, for example. Until 2023, he could only be hit for about a-run-a-ball. Since then, it's been a different story.

Over the years, the start of Rashid's spell has felt like a key moment with the potential to swing the game, more often than not towards the bowling side. Before 2023, his first overs were as economical (6.28) as the rest. This was similar to his overall economy rate in the IPL. His average in his first over (28.9) was higher than his overall average of 20.83. But that was because batters rarely took risks when he came on. Since 2023 though, even Rashid's first overs have gone for 9.05 runs.

There could be several factors influencing this dip in Rashid's form. Gujarat Titans have started playing their home games in Ahmedabad, which isn't the most helpful venue for spinners. Also, with the Impact Player adding greater depth to batting line-ups, teams in the IPL have been a lot more willing to take risks even against the opposition's strike bowlers. Then, there's the general trend of how scoring rates in this tournament keep increasing year on year.

The other big reason that Rashid's numbers have taken a hit is that he has started bowling in the Powerplay a lot more than he used to for his previous franchise. Only 8.75% of his deliveries for Sunrisers were bowled in the first six overs of the innings. This has gone up to nearly 15% with Titans. For Sunrisers, Rashid bowled in the powerplay in 24 out of 76 matches, for Titans it's 22 in 37. Nearly 20% of the runs Rashid has conceded for Titans have come in the first six overs, at an economy rate of 9.63.

Since IPL 2022, among 35 bowlers to have sent down 20 or more overs in the powerplay, Rashid's economy rate of 9.63 is the worst, and he has just three wickets at an average of 70.67 to show for these troubles. So he isn't even trading runs for wickets. Nor is it a sign of decline, because in the same period, he has remained one of the most miserly bowlers in the middle overs (7 to 16) - his economy of 7.06 is the fourth best among 30 bowlers who have bowled 180 or more balls since IPL 2022.

Sunrisers didn't bowl Rashid as often as Titans have in the Powerplay, but seemed to have had a clear plan when they did, and the numbers bear that out. When Rashid bowled his first over of the match inside the first six for Sunrisers, he took nine wickets at 19.67 runs apiece, and had an economy rate of 7.38. When he bowled his first over outside the Powerplay, he took ten wickets at a higher average of 28.40.

This suggests that any time he was being introduced early into the attack, it was to exploit a match-up or the conditions. In other words, he was being set up for success. Rashid's strike-rate when he bowled his first over inside the powerplay for Sunrisers was twice as good as when he bowled his first over outside it. At Titans, Rashid starting his spell during the field restrictions doesn't seem like a plan being put in place.

Findings from a comparative analysis of the match-up data between Rashid and the batters he has bowled to in the first six overs for Sunrisers and Titans strengthens this argument.

Head-to-head data between Rashid and his opponents within a three-year period from the match date is considered for this purpose. All match-ups where the batter has been dismissed at least once by Rashid at an average of under 20 runs per wicket is assumed favourable for the bowler. The same goes for batters Rashid hasn't dismissed but still keeps under a strike rate of 120 (min six balls faced).

All match-ups where the batter has scored 30 or more runs off Rashid at a strike-rate of 130-plus while averaging 25 or better is considered favourable to the batter. The match-ups where the batter has faced at least six balls from Rashid but did not fall into any of the above classifications were considered even contests. The rest were assumed to have insufficient data.

Rashid bowled to 54 batters in the Powerplay for Sunrisers. Out of the 54, 21 were match-ups in favour of the bowler. Only one match-up was in favour of the batter, Chris Gayle, in Mohali in 2019. In the three years before that match, Gayle had hit Rashid for 79 runs from 44 balls while losing his wicket only two times. On that occasion, Rashid came up on top, dismissing Gayle first ball. ESPNcricinfo's ball-by-ball commentary suggests that Gayle was threatening to tilt the match-up further in his favour but for an excellent catch by Deepak Hooda on the boundary.

By comparison, Rashid has already bowled twice in the 2024 season to batters in the Powerplay where the match-up is loaded against him. In the match against Super Kings, he was brought on to bowl the sixth over against Rachin Ravindra and Ruturaj Gaikwad. While one could argue that Ravindra could have found it difficult to read Rashid having not faced him before, there was a good chance Rashid could have ended up bowling mostly to Gaikwad, who has hit him for 95 runs off 60 balls in the three-year period before that game, at cost of only two dismissals. Rashid did take Ravindra's wicket, but also ended up conceding 11 runs off the over. That was just the third wicket Rashid has taken in the Powerplay for Titans.

Against Sunrisers, Rashid bowled the sixth over again, with Travis Head facing the first ball. Head took a single and watched Abhishek Sharma hit 14 off the next five balls including a couple of sixes. The only match-up backed by data entirely in favour of Rashid so far this season was him bowling to Rohit Sharma. The Mumbai Indians batter had been dismissed three times in 20 balls by the bowler.

These are two examples that show Titans have been less tactical about bowling Rashid in the Powerplay. Since IPL 2022, 12 out of 44 match-ups in the Powerplay have not been in favour of the legspinner. That's one in four match-ups against the bowler. Seventeen have been in his favour.

Rashid hasn't been the best of Powerplay bowlers in the IPL, but his overall stats from those overs show that Sunrisers managed him a lot better than Titans. Among 61 bowlers to bowl at least 20 overs in the Powerplay from 2017 to 2021, Rashid was ranked 14th for economy rate. With Titans, he's the worst bowler among 35 who've bowled at least 20 overs. Should Titans be more selective about bowling Rashid in the Powerplay?