Scenarios: How Afghanistan's win opens up Group 1

Afghanistan's win over Australia means both teams stand an equal chance of making it to the final four

S Rajesh
S Rajesh
Afghanistan celebrate their first ever win over Australia, Afghanistan vs Australia, T20 World Cup, Super Eight, Group 1, Kingstown, June 22, 2024

Afghanistan's first ever win over Australia has made Group 1 scenarios interesting  •  Getty Images

Afghanistan's upset victory against Australia has thrown open Group 1 of Super Eight stage of the men's T20 World Cup 2024. Here is a look at the qualification scenarios based on the result combinations in the two remaining matches.
If Australia and Afghanistan win
Three teams will finish on four points. If Australia win by a run, Afghanistan will need a 36-run margin against Bangladesh to move ahead of Australia on net run rate. If Australia win a run-chase off the last ball, Afghanistan will have to win their game in 15.4 overs or sooner (assuming first-innings scores of 160).
India are sitting pretty with an NRR of 2.425. For them to get knocked out, both Australia and Afghanistan will have to win by big margins. Australia will need to beat India by 41 runs to go past them on run rate, while Afghanistan will have to beat Bangladesh by at least 83 runs.
If India and Bangladesh win
India will top the group with six points, while the other three teams will be tied on two each. In that case, NRR will decide the second team from the group. Australia, with a NRR of 0.223, are currently best placed among the three teams: even if Afghanistan lose by just one run, Australia will need to lose by 31 for their run rate to slip below that of Afghanistan.
Bangladesh will need to win by 31 runs for their NRR to sneak ahead of Afghanistan's, but they will also need Australia to lose by 55 runs, to finish second in the group.
If Australia and Bangladesh win
India and Australia will qualify for the semi-finals with four points, while Afghanistan and Bangladesh will finish on two.
If India and Afghanistan win
India and Afghanistan will qualify for the semi-finals with six and four points.

S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats