World Cup trends: Where have all the thrillers gone?

Going by visual memory, in ODI cricket in India earlier this year, the new balls produced an appreciable amount of seam and swing and for a considerable period of time, especially under lights.

The new ball doesn't seem to be doing nearly as much at the World Cup, though. Bowlers whose speciality is the damage they cause with the new ball - Mohammed Siraj and Shaheen Shah Afridi, for example - have had to drag their lengths back a little. One of the theories going around is that the batch of balls in use is just not swinging.

Then again, average seam and average swing during this World Cup has been down just 0.1 degree as compared to what was on offer during the ODIs in India earlier this year. Average seam has fallen from 0.6 degrees to 0.5, and average swing from 0.8 degrees to 0.7.

Which is why it is important to break these numbers down by venues. Dharamsala, Lucknow and, to an extent, Delhi have lifted the average amount of seam and swing available. The other venues have been pretty flat for the quick bowlers.

So the mystery is: is it the ball, is it the overheads, is it the humidity?

At 7.33 an over, this is the World Cup with the third-slowest run rate at the death. At 7.43 an over, the 2011 edition in similar environs wasn't much quicker either. However, it is remarkable for this to happen in 2023 because we have two separate balls in use (meaning they are less scuffed up by the time of the death overs) and the game has generally moved on towards bigger hitting since 2011.

This has been the best World Cup for batters in the first 30 overs. At 5.46 an over, this World Cup has had the best scoring rate in the first 30 overs among World Cups since 1999, and the best average of 46.84 for this period. The run share for the first 30 overs is the highest too: 63.84%, although it is only marginally better than 2019. The same goes for runs scored from overs 11 to 30: 42.6% of the runs have been scored in that period, the highest since 1999.

Sides are looking to break the back of the chase early instead of taking it deep, and those that fall behind early are struggling to make comebacks.

Go back to Jasprit Bumrah's dismissal of Shadab Khan. Only when Bumrah confirmed it himself could we be sure the ball was reversing. Even watching on slow-motion replays, it was near-impossible to tell which was the shiny side because the ball had got so dirty. The balls have generally been getting scuffed up, looking raggedy, during this World Cup. Again some feel it is the ball, some feel it is the squares. Whatever the cause, run-scoring has to be done early even though the average turn has gone up by only 0.2 degrees in the first innings and 0.1 in the second.

A wristspin revolution swept limited-overs cricket between the 2015 and 2019 World Cups, but fingerspin is making a comeback. In 2015, 82.03% of all spin bowled was fingerspun, a figure that fell to 57.52% in 2019. In this World Cup, though, fingerspin is back up to 72% of all spin bowled.

Only ten of the active fast bowlers in this World Cup have played 18 matches or more in the last three IPLs and averaged more than two overs per game. And these ten have far better numbers than those who don't have IPL experience: averaging 29.6 at 5.3 an over as against 35.1 and 6.4 for the others. The non-Indians among these IPL-experienced bowlers are Lockie Ferguson, Josh Hazlewood, Trent Boult, Kagiso Rabada, Marco Jansen, Mustafizur Rahman and Sam Curran.

Since 1999, just one other World Cup has had as many one-sided contests after 20 matches as this one. In the first 20 games here, results have been split between teams batting first and chasing. The average margin in terms of runs, when teams batting first have won, has been 110 runs. Teams chasing have won by an average of 6.7 wickets and 63.5 balls to spare. The only World Cup that beat this on all three counts - average margin of runs, wickets to spare and balls remaining - was the 2011 edition. That year, the average win margin after the first 20 matches was 130 runs, 7.6 wickets and with 115 balls to spare. However, that edition witnessed the England-India tie and Ireland's famous heist in Bengaluru before 20 matches were through. This World Cup hasn't thrown up even the odd thriller so far, Pakistan vs Sri Lanka coming closest but still not going into the last over.

Teams are bringing back their fast bowlers before the 40th over, and are happy to be left with spin in the death overs. It is a result of the ball getting scuffed up and the extra outfielder being available for the last ten overs. As a result, 32.6% of the balls bowled at the death have been bowled by spin, up from 21.6% and 19.75% in the 2015 and 2019 World Cups. Only the 2011 and 2003 used more spin at the death.

It's early days still but this has not been a good World Cup for left-arm quicks, widely considered to be a vital part of any attack. They have averaged 33 per wicket and conceded runs at 6.03 an over, making it among the worst World Cups for them. Their wickets have been dearer only in three World Cups, their overs never costlier.

One of the reasons teams pick left-arm quicks is their efficiency against right-hand batters with the new ball. With the ball not moving that much this time, in the first ten overs they are averaging 45.16 and going at 5.17 per over, the second-worst average and the worst economy rate in the opening overs for this variety of bowlers in any World Cup since 1999.